Massimiliano Allegri keeps pointing at the top four, but AC Milan are Inter’s main title challengers whether he likes it or not.
Tuttosport (via MilanNews) recalls how Allegri once again kept everyones’ feet on the ground after the win in Bologna: “We need to focus on the +7 lead over fifth place, because it’s still a long way off.” A cautious, almost defensive message, but one that doesn’t quite match up with the numbers.
Read SempreMilan ad-free and get access to exclusive news. Click here for a free trial!
The reality
Milan are just five points behind Inter and with the second derby still to play. They are closer to their city rivals than they are to fifth-placed Roma. After 23 matchdays, the Rossoneri have reached 50 points. At this point in the season, this milestone has only been achieved twice in the club’s history.
It happened in 2003-04 with Carlo Ancelotti on the bench, when Milan reached 58 points after 23 games, and even before that in 1995-96 with Fabio Capello, who had 50 exactly too. Then the league had 18 teams, but the outcome was the same: the Scudetto.
Thus, it’s hard to ignore the fact that Allegri’s Milan is fully in the running, whether their coach says so or not. Fifty points remains a primarily psychological threshold, but not even Stefano Pioli in the Scudetto-winning year of 2021-22 had so many (he was on 49).
However, there is a substantial difference compared to illustrious precedents: Capello and Ancelotti were top of the table. Allegri on the other hand is chasing, and must keep pace with Chivu’s Inter, with a squad that is inferior in depth.
This also explains the Bologna incident with Pervis Estupinan. Coming on late with the result already in the bag, the Ecuadorian wing-back tried a back-heel flick that infuriated Allegri, and he shouted at him as a result.
Regardless of the coach’s footballing philosophy, his anger stems from having the attitude of someone who deep down truly believes that the Scudetto is attainable, even as he preaches calm and reels off more cautious projections.
In such a context, every detail can matter, even the schedule. Milan, unlike Inter, have the advantage of playing only one game a week, with no European fixtures. This is a significant factor for a squad that isn’t particularly deep, especially after the failure to sign a defender in the winter market.
Then there’s another small assist: Milan-Como will no longer be played in Perth, but at San Siro on February 18th. An intercontinental trip was avoided with relief by Allegri, who prefers to keep variables under control.
Allegri is clever enough to know that Inter can change 7 first choice players and still hold their own in Serie a. Not wise to think you are competing with them. He strikes me as someone who takes it one game at a time with a realistic target in mind. And if we get the scudetto it will be a totally unexpected coup. We must remember the last 3 seasons we found ourselves in. Milan is under reconstruction so getting back into the UCL space sounds sensible.
Also the corto muso philosophy applied to the season as a whole, not just each game played. He is right where we wants to be at this point in the season, firmly in second place, but close enough to take advantage of any stumble and sprint past Inter at the finish line. My personal opinion is whomever wins the derby on 3/8 will win the league.
Forza is totally correct. Our goal at the beginning was top 4 and we’re well on course, anything beyond is a bonus. The derby on 3/8 is decisive only if we lose, as we’ll be eight points behind. If we win or draw, we’ll still have to depend on Inter dropping points elsewhere, and us not dropping points elsewhere, none of which is guaranteed, because we’d still at best be two points behind Inter. To be sure, we’re not out of the title race at this moment, but the odds are against us.
I think the derby result has more affect than just the points dropped, as the derby loss in 2022 showed. Inter still had the lead but dropped points at pivotal moments. Indeed the trajectory of the Milan clubs switched at that point. If Milan win, the push for the Scudetto will shift into high gear. If they lose or draw, I think truly the focus will be on consolidating safe passage to Europe. We shall see!
Sure we might win the derby.
But I just can’t see Inter dropping any other points.
We also need to stop dropping points to small teams.
Interesting to see just how highly this tally compares to other seasons.
But I suspect we are heading to something more like that season where Napoli got 90 points only to finished second behind Juventus.