A damning explanation: Milan’s struggle against Serie A’s top eight

AC Milan found themselves on the wrong side of a 2-1 scoreline against Atalanta on Friday night, and since the game, the headlines have suggested that the Rossoneri are out of a Scudetto fight, but why?

At an elite level, football can be really simple, and in this case, logically, it is. Milan have not been good enough consistently to find themselves in a title battle. Unfortunately, this is the case at both ends of the table.

Against sides at the bottom end of the league, the Rossoneri have been quite shoddy, and whilst there are some expected results, there are also odd results like a loss to Parma and a draw with Cagliari.

But it is the top side of things that we are going to look at in depth.

An obvious struggle

We have often left big games this season feeling like the Diavolo should or could have done more, but seeing it contextualised puts things, worryingly, into perspective.

As stated, seeing things like that is rather worrying, and explains Milan’s position very easily. Only two of the top eight have a negative record in these games and with that, a negative PPG record. Both of those teams sit outside of the European spots – the Rossoneri and Bologna.

Of course, we can caveat this, and say the Rossoneri have played the most games (so there is more of a case compared to say Fiorentina, who have only played three times against the top eight) and the only game left to play is against a side that no team inside the top eight has lost against – the Rossoblu.

But this would be avoiding the problem. Failing to win against five of the top eight teams is problematic in itself, and this is without even looking at the games on a case-by-case basis.

Issues at both ends of the pitch

In five of the six games, the Rossoneri have conceded two goals, and this is probably due to Paulo Fonseca’s excessive rotation of the defence – in the games against the top eight, there have been four different combinations across the six games (Tomori-Pavlovic, Tomori-Gabbia, Gabbia-Pavlovic, Thiaw-Gabbia).

Sticking with the defensive record, only Bologna have conceded as many goals in these games (though we can offer Milan some slack here given they have played more than the Rossoblu), and the trend continues.

The sides who concede the most lose the most points, and are coincidentally the two trailing teams inside the top eight – what was that about football being simple sometimes?\

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Perhaps we can also then look to goalscoring, the Rossoneri have six goals in these games, which is tied only by Fiorentina on six goals (though with three games less played), and only Bologna have worse (three goals in four games).

Per game, Bologna are the only side with a worse GPG rate (0.75 GpG compared to Milan’s 1 GpG), and once again we refer to football being a simple game.

So not only are the Rossoneri scoring less than their European rivals, but also conceding more.

If we look at the two sides to lead Serie A in recent weeks, Atalanta have scored nine in five (1.8 GpG) and conceded eight (1.6 GApG) whereas Napoli have scored six in five (1.2 GpG) and conceded five (1 GApG), which is better than the Diavolo in all categories (1 GpG and 1.67 GApG).

This is without even looking at the points being collected by Atalanta (who have achieved the most against the top eight and lead Serie A, possibly, as a result). Even Napoli, who have collected six fewer points against the ‘top’ teams than Atalanta lead the Rossoneri by 10 points.

The harsh reality for Milan

To conclude, there have been suggestions that the Rossoneri have ‘lost the title’ simply because they couldn’t perform against sides in the lower half of the table and whilst this is perhaps true to some extent, the findings of this are a damning explanation of the Rossoneri’s situation.

We can make a suggestion of our own. Between Atalanta and Milan, there is a 12-point gap, and yet there is an 11-point difference between their records against the top eight… that there is a title fight difference.

As previously stated, the Diavolo have scored less, conceded more, and most importantly lost more than most teams, in the case of the latter, they have done so more than any other team in this case study (if we can call it that).

That right there is the key reason why Fonseca’s side find themselves trailing, and probably out of, the Scudetto race, despite the persistent regurgitation of Milan’s title ambitions from those around the club, the facts are clear to see. 

The Rossoneri are not in a title fight, and whilst their eyes are focused on those above them, the ground below them is only sinking and faith is falling in the coach.