AC Milan are back in Champions League action at San Siro against Borussia Dortmund on Tuesday night in what is a huge game in the battle to reach the knockout rounds.
Milan’s qualification hopes were boosted massively in their last home European fixture as they came from behind to beat Paris Saint-Germain 2-1, while they also ended a four-game winless run in Serie A on Saturday by beating Fiorentina 1-0.
Stefano Pioli admitted in his pre-match press conference that he is aware of how much is riding on the game against Dortmund – including a potential €100m in revenues – and his side will need to improve again from the weekend win.
Game date: Tuesday, November 29
Kick-off time: 21:00 (CET)
Venue: San Siro
Referee: István Kovács (VAR: Van Boekel)
Team news
Of the injured players on the Champions League squad list, Marco Sportiello, Pierre Kalulu, Noah Okafor and unfortunately Rafael Leao will certainly not recover for the game against BVB, with Simon Kjaer seemingly unlikely to make it at this stage.
Furthermore, there will be no Yunus Musah or Francesco Camarda compared to the game on Saturday. The former is suspended while the latter is ineligible to play, and the same can be said for Jan-Carlo Simic as he does not meet the requirements to be included in List B.
The starting eleven is thus practically almost forced: Mike Maignan in goal, then a four-man defensive with the usual Davide Calabria, Malick Thiaw, Fikayo Tomori and Theo Hernandez.
The midfield will feature Tijjani Reijnders and Rade Krunic as well as Ruben Loftus-Cheek, who has now fully recovered. It is possible, just like against PSG, that the Englishman will be used in a more advanced position than the other two midfielders.
On the wings it will be Samuel Chukwueze and Christian Pulisic while Olivier Giroud returns as the centre-forward given that his ban only applies to Serie A and not the European competitions.
Probable Milan XI (4-2-3-1): Maignan; Calabria, Thiaw, Tomori, Hernandez; Reijnders, Krunic; Chukwueze, Loftus-Cheek, Pulisic; Giroud.
The opponents
During our preview of the reverse game in Germany we recapped what happened over the summer to Borussia Dortmund including their transfer business, and at the time of writing that they were in fourth place.
Since that first meeting, BVB have slipped to 10 points behind the current surprise package of the season Bayer Leverkusen. Wins over the likes of Hoffenheim, Werder Bremen and most recently Borussia Mönchengladbach have kept them in the top four, but losses against Bayern Munich (0-4) and VfB Stuttgart have left them well behind in the title race.
In the Champions League though they recorded impressive back-to-back wins against Newcastle United, emerging victorious 1-0 at St. James Park with a stoic defensive display and then beating them 2-0 back in the Ruhr Valley.
As mentioned, their most recent game was a win over the other Borussia and they scored four goals, something which was much-needed. Marcel Sabitzer, Niclas Füllkrug, Jamie Bynoe-Gittens and Donyell Malen all got on the scoresheet.
Head coach Edin Terzic has been under pressure after certain bad results this season, but he has almost a clean bill of health for the trip across the Alps to face Milan with only Felix Nmecha definitely out due to a hip issue.
Emre Can and Gregor Kobel both overcame fitness concerns to play a part in the win over Mönchengladbach so they are expected to be available, while forward duo Karim Adeyemi and Sebastien Haller have shaken off illnesses to make the trip. However, Niklas Sule remained in Germany as he has a cold.
Dortmund have been notoriously hard to predict this season when it comes to a starting line-up, but reports suggest it will be a 4-2-3-1 with Kobel in goal, Bensebaini, Hummels, Schlotterbeck and Ryerson in defence, Can and Sabitzer just in front then Reus, Brandt and Malen behind Füllkrug.
Probable Dortmund XI (4-2-3-1): Kobel; Ryerson, Hummels, Schlotterbeck, Bensebaini; Can, Ozcan; Reus, Brandt, Gittens; Fullkrug.
Head to head
Milan have played Dortmund seven times in their history, with three of those resulting in wins, two being losses and two being draws.
The first fixture between the two sides came all the way back in the 1957-58 European Cup quarter-finals, where Milan emerged 5-2 aggregate winners thanks in large part to a 4-1 victory at San Siro.
Back in the 2002-03 Champions League group stage the sides met again, and Milan won 1-0 at the Westfalenstadion thanks to Pippo Inzaghi’s second half goal, but the Bundesliga side triumphed 1-0 at San Siro in the return game with Jan Koller netting a late winner.
Of course the most recent game with the reverse fixture this season, and that ended in a 0-0 draw at Signal Iduna Park in what was a much more entertaining game than the scoreline suggests.
Match facts…
➤ Milan are set to host Borussia Dortmund in the UEFA Champions League for the first time since a 1-0 defeat in the second group stage in 2002-03. Milan had won their two previous home games against Dortmund (4-1 in the 1957-58 European Cup, 3-1 in the 2001-02 UEFA Cup).
➤ Borussia Dortmund have lost four of their last five away matches against Italian sides in UEFA European competition (D1), since a 2-0 victory over Udinese in October 2008 in a UEFA Cup game.
➤ Milan have only lost one of their last 16 home games in European competition against German sides (W11 D4), although that one defeat did come against Borussia Dortmund (0-1 in the UEFA Champions League in 2002-03).
➤ After their victory over Paris Saint-Germain on MD4, Milan boss Stefano Pioli will be aiming to win consecutive games in the UEFA Champions League for only the second time as a manager – previously doing so in February this year (a run of three). This will be his 23rd game he has overseen in the competition.
➤ Following consecutive wins over Newcastle (1-0 away and 2-0 at home), Borussia Dortmund will be looking to win three UEFA Champions League games in a row for the first time since November 2020 (a run of three under Lucien Favre).
➤ Milan have only scored twice in their four UEFA Champions League games this season, with only Benfica (1) netting fewer so far. However, only Internazionale (-3.8) have underperformed against their expected goals total by a bigger margin than Milan in the group stage this term (-3.7 – two goals from 5.7 xG).
➤ Borussia Dortmund haven’t conceded in any of their last three games in the UEFA Champions League, while they haven’t kept four consecutive clean sheets in the competition since April-October 2014, under Jürgen Klopp (a run of four).
➤ Should Borussia Dortmund win this game, Edin Terzic (41y 29d) would be the youngest manager to beat Milan at the Giuseppe Meazza in the UEFA Champions League since Pep Guardiola (40y 309d) in November 2011 (Milan 2-3 Barcelona).
➤ Rafael Leão leads all Milan players in the UEFA Champions League this season for chances created from open play (8), dribbles completed (15) and progressive carries (34). After his goal against Paris Saint-Germain last time out, he could net in consecutive games in the competition for the first time here.
➤ Borussia Dortmund defender Mats Hummels has the most combined tackles and interceptions in the UEFA Champions League this season (24). Indeed, he is just one of three players with 10+ tackles and 10+ interceptions in this tournament so far, along with Milan’s Fikayo Tomori and Galatasaray’s Abdülkerim Bardakci.
Ones to watch
Giroud was the match-winner against PSG in the last European night at San Siro and with the Man of the Match from that game Leao still out he will have to carry the attack, along with Pulisic against his former club.
However, the tactical key from that match against the Parisians might just have been Loftus-Cheek in an advanced role, so that will be something to watch again. Theo must look to build on his goal from Saturday, while the Thiaw-Tomori centre-back pairing must confirm their high levels.
Dortmund’s attacking threat has been quite spread with seven players have scored multiple Bundesliga goals. Brandt, Malen and Füllkrug – all of whom are tipped to start – are tied as the top scorers with four goals each.
Brandt also has five assists to his name making him the leading contributor overall. Dortmund will rely on the experience of Champions League veterans like Hummels and Can to try resist the hostile atmosphere of over 70,000 fans at San Siro.
Prediction
This really is a game that could go any way. While Dortmund would potentially take a point as it keeps them above Milan, we’re not sure they have a defend-first setting and thus there should still be space. Taking it to the final round is all that matters here for the Rossoneri.
Milan 2-1 Dortmund
never fear the money ball squad will pull it off!
-Chuck on left -giroud -pobega up front, puli right
its so obviuos.
I see tomori scoring
Pump the arrogant pieces of rubbish Milan!
“Rafael Leão leads all Milan players in the UEFA Champions League this season for chances created from open play (8), dribbles completed (15) and progressive carries (34). After his goal against Paris Saint-Germain last time out, he could net in consecutive games in the competition for the first time here.”
Yeah, IF he were fit enough to play. My money is on “Leao will not score today”. I’m willing to bet our house on it.