AC Milan will face off against Inter in the second leg of their Champions League semi-final clash hoping to upset the odds and book a place in the Istanbul final.
Milan know that they have a mountain to climb if they are to reach the final of the Champions League as they were beaten 2-0 in the first leg by Inter on Wednesday night, having been rocked by a rapid start from Simone Inzaghi’s men who scored twice inside 11 minutes.
Both Stefano Pioli and Sandro Tonali stated in their pre-match press conferences that the team have the belief that they can overturn the deficit, but even the most optimistic of Milan supporters acknowledge the magnitude of the task at hand.
Game date: Tuesday, May 16
Kick-off time: 21:00 (CEST)
Venue: San Siro
Referee: Clement Turpin (VAR: Brisard)
Team news
Milan come into the game off the back of a 2-0 defeat against relegation-battling Spezia in the league on Saturday evening which has very much complicated the top four race.
The game did give a chance for some starters to rest, but the likes of Simon Kjaer, Fikayo Tomori, Theo Hernandez, Sandro Tonali and Brahim Diaz all played.
The main news ahead of the second leg is that Rafael Leao should be back in the team. He trained with the squad for the full session today and Pioli confirmed that he will start the game if he managed to complete training.
Ismael Bennacer is also out for the rest of the season as he will undergo surgery on a knee problem tomorrow that he picked up during the first leg which forced Pioli into an early unplanned change.
Rade Krunic and Junior Messias missed the defeat at the weekend with each having a minor issue, but the good news is that they too trained with the squad and are therefore in contention to play, as is Alessandro Florenzi.
As per the latest reports, Mike Maignan will be in goal with Davide Calabria and Theo Hernandez as full-backs. There should be a change at centre-back, with Malick Thiaw taking the place of Kjaer alongside Tomori.
Krunic should recover in time to start in the midfield alongside Sandro Tonali, just as Messias is expected to be avaliable but at the moment Alexis Saelemaekers has the slight edge in the battle for the right wing spot.
Brahim Diaz and Leao complete the trident behind Olivier Giroud who will again start as the centre-forward, looking for more derby heroics.
Probable Milan XI (4-2-3-1) Maignan; Calabria, Thiaw, Tomori, Theo; Tonali, Krunic; Saelemaekers, Diaz, Leao; Giroud.
The opponents
Inter come into the game in much better shape both in terms of having an aggregate lead in the tie but also having beaten and put four goals past Sassuolo in their game on Saturday, pushing them closer to securing a Champions League return.
Simone Inzaghi insisted in his pre-match presser that the Nerazzurri have no intention to simply sit back and try to defend the lead that they have and instead they will try to get the goal that could kill the tie off.
In terms of team news, it seems as though Milan Skriniar is the only Inter player who will definitely miss out due to injury as he continues to recover from surgery on his back.
Joaquin Correa picked up an issue on Saturday in their 4-2 win against the Neroverdi and could be out but Inzaghi remains hopeful that he will be fit enough for the bench.
As per reports circulating at the moment, it will be Andre Onana in goal with Matteo Darmian, Francesco Acerbi and Alessandro Bastoni as the three-man defence, plus Denzel Dumfries and Federico Dimarco as the wing-backs.
The midfield trio should remain as Nicolo Barella, Hakan Calhanoglu and Henrikh Mkhitaryan with Marcelo Brozovic thus having to settle for a spot on the bench again.
Romelu Lukaku appears to be back to his best in the league, but Inzaghi is expected to stick with Edin Dzeko and Lautaro Martinez as the front two after the problems they caused on Wednesday night.
Probable Inter XI (3-5-2): Onana; Darmian, Acerbi, Bastoni; Dumfries, Barella, Calhanoglu, Mkhitaryan, Dimarco; Dzeko, Martinez.
Head to head
The Milan derby will see its 220th meeting on Tuesday night across all competitions, and Milan have emerged victorious on 71 of those occasions, with 67 draws and 82 wins for Inter giving them a slight upper hand.
It is also the third time that the red and blue side of the city have met in the UCL knockout stages. The first occasion was in 2002-03, when a tense 0-0 in the first leg was followed by a 1-1 draw as Andriy Shevchenko got the goal that sent the Rossoneri through on away goals, before beating Juventus in the final
They met again in the quarter-finals in 2004-05 and Milan won the first leg 2-0, with Jaap Stamp and then Andriy Shevchenko the scorers to give Carlo Ancelotti’s men a clear advantage.
Sheva then scored 30 minutes into a second leg that was never completed. A disallowed Esteban Cambiasso goal saw Inter fans throw flares and one hit Dida with the game was abandoned and Milan awarded a 3-0 win.
The year of 2023 has not been kind to the Diavolo in the derby though, as they have played Inter three times, losing 3-0 in the Supercoppa final, 1-0 in Serie A and 2-0 last week.
Match facts…
➤ Alessandro Bastoni has been involved in more open play sequences ending in goals than any other centre back in the UEFA Champions League this season (8). Indeed, Bastoni leads all Inter players in the competition this term for touches (617), progressive carries (70) and passes into the final third (65).
➤ Inter Federico Dimarco has assisted five goals from open play in the Champions League this season, the most of any player. Indeed, it’s the joint-most by an Inter player in a single campaign in the competition on record (since 2003-04), along with Samuel Eto’o in 2010-11 and Wesley Sneijder in 2009-10.
➤ In the Champions League this season, Inter have recovered the ball and initiated their open play sequences at an average distance of 38.5 metres from their own goal – this is the fifth-deepest of any side in the competition this term, and the deepest of any team to have made the knockout stages.
➤ Inter haven’t trailed at any point in the knockout stages of the Champions League this season (W3 D2), keeping a clean sheet in four of the five games. The only Italian side to reach the final of the competition having gone unbeaten in the last 16, quarter-finals and semi-finals is Juventus, who did so in 2014-15 and 2016-17.
➤ Milan have only won one of their last 16 games as the away side in the knockout stages of the UEFA Champions League (D8 L7) – versus Bayern Munich in April 2007 (2-0). Overall, Milan – who need to score at least twice here – have only scored 15 goals in 24 away games in the knockout stages of the Champions League, at an average of 0.6 per game.
➤ All 23 of Olivier Giroud’s goals in the Champions League have been scored from inside the box. Since 2003-04 (when this data is available), the Milan striker is the player with the most goals scored in the competition with 100% of them coming from inside the box.
➤ Inter are looking to reach their sixth European Cup/UEFA Champions League final, and first since 2009-10 under José Mourinho. Should they progress here, Simone Inzaghi would be the fifth Italian manager to lead an Italian team to the UEFA Champions League final, after Fabio Capello with Milan (x3), Marcello Lippi with Juventus (x4), Carlo Ancelotti with Milan (x3) and Massimiliano Allegri with Juventus (x2).
➤ In Champions League history, only one team has won the first leg of the semi-final by two or more goals and then failed to progress, with Barcelona failing to go through against Liverpool in 2018-19, winning the first leg 3-0 but losing the second leg 4-0 at Anfield – current Milan striker Divock Origi scored two goals in that game, including the fourth and winning goal.
➤ After beating Inter in their first meeting this season in September, Milan have lost their last three against their rivals, all without scoring despite attempting 31 shots across these games. They’ve never gone four in a row without finding the net against Inter in their history.
➤ Inter have beaten Milan three times in all competitions this season, all in different competitions (Serie A, Italian Super, UEFA Champions League). They have only beaten them four times in a season once before, doing so in 1973-74 (twice Serie A, twice Coppa Italia).
Ones to watch
The threats for Inter were made obvious by what happened in the first leg. Dimarco’s galloping runs down the left side caught Calabria out numerous times, as did the hold-up play of Lautaro and the deeper movement of Dzeko.
Not only that, but Darmian did a great job in stepping out to meet any runners Milan had and will probably do the same to Brahim Diaz, while Acerbi limited Giroud’s influence and let him win virtually nothing in the air.
For Milan there is one player who they hope will unlock everything, and that is Leao. The Portuguese winger is not only a match-winner on his day, but he brings Theo into the game, provides for Giroud and gives an out ball to the defence and midfield.
The centre-back pairing – presumably Tomori and Thiaw – simply must do a better job of stopping how much the Inter front two are able to create quick breaks and hold up the ball to bring the midfield runners into play.
Prediction
As much as we all want to believe in miracles and although stranger things have happened in football, this feels like a bridge too far for a team that are struggling mentally and physically.
The idea of scoring twice without reply is far-fetched, because by attacking the Rossoneri will leave themselves open to the exact situation Inter thrive under.
Inter 2-1 AC Milan
3-0.
But I’d give my left testicle to win 0-3.
We will lose energy and risk injuries just for fun…
Form is temporary, class is permanent!❤️🖤 Nobody expected Liverpool, to overturn 3-0 deficit against Barcelona.. Never say never!🙏
Forza Milan
Using that photo cover with Pirlo Cafu and Stam is a classy reminder of who we are as Ac Milan and the gravity of wearing that red and black.
They’ll most likely be eliminated but I’d settle for them making a show of it tbh. We’ve been on the shite end of so many comebacks in the champions league that we are past due at least one of our own.That it’s a derby only raises the odds of drama and this definitely weighs on Inter! A goal each half plus a clean-sheet at worst and momentum will take us through.
Bloody their noses and leave the rest to fate, but a repeat of last week’s capitulation is not a choice!
Forza Milan!🟥⬛️🟥⬛️🟥⬛️
4-2 AC Milan but if we play at our absolute max . 2-0 after regular time 😁 other goals AET
I was believe on our colours till the very end.
FORZA MILAN.
*always
I had a dream. Milan won by 2-0 but, don’t know the aftermath of extra time.
A free kick and second goal by Giroud.
Please, let me dream
Hopefully, we play without fear, that’s all I am asking.
Wear that shirt with pride and treat it with proper respect. Don’t lose to any second balls, kept chasing and pressing, and show our cousins who the devils are.
The result will come naturally.