AC Milan make the trip to face Newcastle United knowing the qualifying for the last 16 of the Champions League is a tall order, but after a difficult recent run they must give it everything.
Milan come into the game having been defeated last time out in the league by Atalanta on Saturday, and also in their most recent European fixture at the hands of Borussia Dortmund, so Wednesday night’s game feels like a real do-or-die occasion.
Stefano Pioli admitted in his pre-match press conference that the odds are stacked against his side, but that all they can do is win and hope for a favour.
Game date: Wednesday, December 13
Kick-off time: 21:00 (CET)
Venue: St. James’ Park
Referee: Danny Makkelie (VAR: Dieperink)
Team news
The 3-2 defeat at the hands of Atalanta a three days ago has left a sour taste in the mouth as Luis Muriel’s backheel in the 94th minute is still etched into the eyes of many. With Inter and Juventus now nine and seven points ahead in the table respectively, a Scudetto challenge feels like a distant mirage.
That is why the game against the Magpies is so important, even if getting second spot in the group feels a tall order. The Rossoneri not only need to beat Newcastle but they must hope that Borussia Dortmund – who have already secured top spot – do them a favour and win against PSG.
For Milan the injury problems are well known, particularly in the defensive department. Malick Thiaw, Pierre Kalulu and Marco Pellegrino are expected to miss the rest of 2023 while Mattia Caldara is not in the squad and is also injured. Back-up goalkeeper Marco Sportiello will not recover either.
The good news in attack is that Rafael Leao has passed the most recent fitness test and will make the trip to England after being left out of the game on Saturday as a precaution, while at the time of writing there is also a chance that Noah Okafor could make the squad too.
According to the latest update from MilanNews, Pioli is expected to field Mike Maignan in goal with a back four of Davide Calabria, Fikayo Tomori, Theo Hernandez and Theo Hernandez in front of the Frenchman.
The midfield three should then consist of Ruben Loftus-Cheek, Tijjani Reijnders and Yunus Musah, operating behind a front three of Christian Pulisic, Olivier Giroud and the returning Rafael Leao.
Probable Milan XI (4-2-3-1): Maignan; Calabria, Tomori, Hernandez, Florenzi; Loftus-Cheek, Reijnders, Musah; Pulisic, Giroud, Leao.
The opponents
Newcastle have had a real up and down season so far after an interesting summer – which we talked about in the preview for the reverse fixture – and like Milan they are also battling an injury crisis.
Recent heavy defeats against Everton and Spurs, both away from home, have left the Geordies somewhat adrift for the time being in the race to be in the top four and book a place in next year’s edition of the competition.
To get the lowdown on how things are going with Eddie Howe’s men, we spoke to Ash from NUFC News.
What are your thoughts on where Newcastle are at in terms of their plans, and what did you think of the summer business done?
“In terms of the long-term plan, we are so far ahead of where we were expecting to be at this point. That is both a blessing and a curse. It has shown that we are a strong side and can compete at the highest level, but because of Financial Fair Play, we aren’t able to assemble a squad strong enough to compete at this level consistently.
“Our summer transfer business was excellent, but we lost our two biggest signings; Sandro Tonali and Harvey Barnes quite early into the season and that really affected us.”
How would you judge the season so far and are there some worries about league form?
“It’s been a very hard season to judge because so much has gone against us in terms of injuries and the 10-month ban handed to Tonali. We’re still in the top half of the league and, until Wednesday at least, we are still in every competition we’ve entered into, so we can’t complain too much.
“Our form right now is a worry, but more due to the fact that there’s so little Eddie Howe can do to change things.”
What is your injury situation?
“Our injury situation is terrible, it’s the main cause of our poor form. Up until this weekend we were missing 12 first-team players, most of whom would be in the starting eleven if they were fit.
“It’s been a difficult season for us in terms of injuries and we’ve still got a long way to go before we’ve got anything resembling a full squad.”
What is the starting XI likely to be?
“This is a tough one. Up until Sunday, the team has picked itself recently because the eleven players we had fit were the ones starting. Now we have Sean Longstaff and Callum Wilson back from injury and Harvey Barnes is close too.
“It’s probably too soon to see any of them start on Wednesday night so I would not be surprised to see the same team used yet again on Wednesday despite them all being insanely tired.
“So that would be, Martin Dubravka in goal. A defence made up of Kieran Trippier, Jamaal Lascelles, Fabian Schar and Tino Livramento.
“Joelinton, Bruno Guimaraes and Lewis Miley will be in the midfield (although Miley may be replaced by Sean Lonstaff). Our forwards will be Miguel Almiron, Alexander Isak and Anthony Gordon.”
Probable Newcastle XI (4-3-3): Dubravka; Trippier, Lascelles, Schar, Livramento; Joelinton, Guimaraes, Miley; Almiron, Isak, Gordon.
Head to head
Milan had played 10 different teams from England before the draw for this group was made, ranging from Manchester United who they have met 12 times in official competitions to Portsmouth who they played in the UEFA Cup once 15 years ago.
However, the reverse game at San Siro was the first time that the Rossoneri had ever faced the black and white stripes of Newcastle, though it was not the Magpies’ first visit to Milano because they have played Inter four times in their history.
The group stage opener finished 0-0 with Milan having the lion’s share of possession and chances but failing to convert them, and being two points better off at this stage could be decisive.
Newcastle’s overall record against Italian clubs reads as follows: 10 games, 3 wins, 4 draws and 3 defeats.
Match facts…
➤ The only previous European encounter between Newcastle and Milan was a goalless draw on MD1 of this season’s UEFA Champions League in which the Italian side had 25 shots without success.
Milan are the first Italian side to visit St James’ Park to face Newcastle in Europe since Internazionale in November 2002, winning 4-1 in a UEFA Champions League group stage match.
➤ Milan have won just one of their 21 away major European matches in England (D7 L13), a 1-0 win at Man Utd in February 2005. They are winless against nine other teams – Ipswich Town, Chelsea, Tottenham Hotspur, Everton, Manchester City, Leeds United, Arsenal, Portsmouth and Liverpool.
➤ Newcastle lost 1-0 to Borussia Dortmund in their last home Champions League game – the Magpies have never lost consecutive home games in major European competition. The only season they have lost more than one game at St James’ Park was in 2002-03 (three).
➤ Milan have only finished bottom of their group on two previous occasions in the Champions League, doing so in the first round group stage in 1999-00 and in 2021-22 under current manager Stefano Pioli.
➤ Milan have only scored three goals in the Champions League, with no side scoring fewer through the opening five matchdays. They are the team with the biggest negative difference between their goals scored and expected goals this term (-4.9 – three goals from 7.9 xG).
➤ Newcastle drew 0-0 with Milan in the reverse fixture in the UEFA Champions League this season, despite the Italian side attempting 25 shots in that match – this is the most shots a team have had without scoring in a single game in the competition in 2023-24.
➤ In the opening five matchdays of the Champions League this season, Milan were the team with the highest percentage of their passes breaking at least one opposition line (15.4%). Théo Hernández is the player who has made the most line-breaking passes for the Italian side in the competition this term (41).
➤ In the opening five matchdays of the UEFA Champions League this season, Milan were the team with the highest percentage of their passes breaking at least one opposition line (15.4%). Théo Hernández is the player who has made the most line-breaking passes for the Italian side in the competition this term (41).
➤ Milan’s Rafael Leão (54) is one of only three players to have completed 50+ take-ons in the UEFA Champions League since the start of last season, along with Vinícius Júnior and Khvicha Kvaratskhelia. The
➤ Portuguese winger also has the best take-on success rate of any of those three players (55.7%).
Newcastle goalkeeper Nick Pope – who will be unavailable in this game – was the top-ranked goalkeeper in the Champions League this season for goals prevented, based on the quality of shots on target faced. Pope conceded just five goals from an xG on target faced total of 9.9, with the English stopper preventing just under five goals (+4.9).
Ones to watch
It goes without saying that Milan’s biggest threat is Leao, and the pressure will be on his shoulders to carry the attack in the counter-attacking situations that arise. Pulisic’s five goals and Giroud’s nine mean they will probably be on the end of what he creates.
In midfield Loftus-Cheek will hope to reach the same heights in terms of performance level as he did during the win over PSG, while at the back the experienced heads of Tomori and Theo must marshal the emergency the best they can.
Starting from the back for Newcastle, Schär and Trippier – both in their 30s – have started all 16 games for Howe’s side, while Guimaraes is without doubt the metronome in midfield.
Isak and Gordon have seven and six league goals respectively, while the English winger has three assists as well. Trippier leads them in that category with seven. What it might come down to is how players like Dubravka, Livramento and Miley cope with the occasion.
Prediction
Both teams come into this game battered in terms of injuries and perhaps also mentally drained too, but Milan’s struggles in big games this season point towards the cauldron of St. James’ Park being a step too far, especially given they have to chase the game and Newcastle’s front three will have space to go at a makeshift defence.
Newcastle 2-1 Milan
I will say a 3-1 win for Newcastle. They have a few bad games recently but their form in home matches has always been good.
Yea St James park is not easy. But weirdly I think we can pull off a win.. otherwise if we lost I think we’ll lose badly like a 4-0 or 4-1.
I’d trade all 19 scudettos to win a champions league. It’ll take a miracle tomorrow but I have hope! The Champions League games just give you a different feeling.
TBH we always play better when under pressure but I don’t have a good feeling about this game.
Ey boy were Milan not any club that got humiliated by Newcastle remember last time we were gonna win we have they best players in the corners we got Giroud tomori lofts cheek we got the best wingers our defense is fine our midfield is good we got a good shooter and 2x fast physical players how can you say we cannot win we also have bennecar and adli good passers right? What do they have that we doesn’t only because they are the richest club in the world doesn’t means that they’re the best
Sorry what?
regardless this match might go either way but i could actually see us winning it and then in the end our lack of taking our chances against newcastle in the first match comes back to haunt us.
When that is said i simply refuses voting against ac milan so newcastle 1-2 ac milan – dortmund 3-2 psg 😛
All true Milan Fan’s, deep down have that intrinsic hope that comes with our home, the UCL
Thats nonsense. You can be a diehard milan fan and not be delusional at the same time. We have seen this team win the champions league and also have Jeremy Menez as your best player for over a year, so things can happen on polar ends of the happiness spectrum with this club.
Our chances of going through are easily less than 10%. Almost impossible, but not impossible. Either way, still watching.
Are you referring to me being delusional because if so well then you can pretty much sod off. Anyways 10% chance ? its at least 25-30% chance even if its unlikely its definitely not as slim as you profess.
You’re mixing up hope with delusion. Delusion is thinking we’ll definitely win vs Newcastle. Or thinking we’re more European because we got a couple of $20m players.
As a Milan fan, you always have hope in Europe. Remember Ambrosini’s header vs PSV? Anyways…
Well i always have hope in….. football 🙂
Don’t know why my comment was added there lol
still a pretty horrible suggestion to trade our 19 scudettos for 1 cl trophy 🙂
The writer loves Theo! Theo is going to play two of the four defensive positions, AND he’s so far ahead in “line breaking passes” that the writer wrote that paragraph twice!
Hopefully Theo is at his best, looks like there really are two of him on the field, and we win.
Have said before 433 will crash Milan, it came true. 4231 will only get 4th/5th in Seria A. Milan needs to go back to 4312 twin strike attack to have a serious shot at winning major tournaments. 433 is just not Milan DNA