After the international break, the final stretch of the Serie A season will get underway, and there is one question on everyone’s minds.
Well, to be more specific, there is something that the Inter, Milan and Napoli supporters want to know as the campaign progresses into its final eight games: will there be a genuine race to be crowned the Scudetto winners?
At present, it feels as though Inter have one hand on the trophy. They have a six-point lead over their city rivals who are second, and a seven-point gap to the team that won the league title this season. As such, their chances of winning Scudetto number 21 are over 90%, as per Opta’s super computer.
Yet, before the derby that was played earlier in the month, the gap at the top was 10 points for the Nerazzurri, so that means that in the last three rounds it has been almost halved. If that trajectory continues in the next few rounds then, well, we have a very entertaining finale.
So, looking ahead to the games that are to come, who has the advantage when it comes to the schedule? Another factor to bear in mind is that Inter have a Coppa Italia semi-final second leg (and therefore possibly final) to contend with, while their rivals can focus energy on one game per weeks.
The league-leaders
Inter are currently in the middle of a tough run of games that has seen them take two points out of nine so far against Milan, Atalanta and Fiorentina. Next up are Roma (6th) at home and Como (4th) away, two teams that are fighting for the Champions League spots.
After that comes a home match against Cagliari (15th) who remain in a relegation battle and are three points above the drop, then Torino (14th) away, who themselves are not out of danger yet despite a six-point gap to the bottom three.
The final four games include Parma (12th) at San Siro, Lazio (8th) away, Verona (19th) at home and Bologna (9th) away. Previous title bids have come unstuck at the Dall’Ara for Inter, while Maurizio Sarri’s side could well be in a European scrap.
The average league position at present of all the teams Inter will face is 9.75, with a lower number in this case denoting a more difficult schedule. The games that can be highlighted in red as danger games are Roma, Como, Cagliari, Torino, Lazio and possibly Bologna all of whom are playing for something, be it survival, top four or Conference/Europa League.
The main contenders
Moving on to Milan, arguably the biggest fixture left for any team comes on Easter Monday, one day after Inter will have hosted Roma. Massimiliano Allegri’s side travel to face Napoli at the Stadio Diego Armando Maradona in what is a huge six-pointer than might just determine who the main challengers to Cristian Chivu’s men are.
Following that, the Diavolo will welcome Udinese (11th) to San Siro, face Verona (19th) away, Juventus (5th) at home, Sassuolo (10th) away, Atalanta (7th) at home, Genoa (13th) away and finally will host Cagliari (15th) to round off the season.
Juventus and Atalanta as back-to-back home games stand out, while Cagliari could still be in relegation bother, but sometimes it can be good to face teams that also need to win. The average position of the remaining teams: 10.375, so (on paper, as of 27 March) a bit easier than Inter.
The reigning champions
Finally, we come to Napoli, who as mentioned resume after the break by hosting Milan. Following that, Conte’s troops have Parma (12th) away, Lazio (8th) at home, Cremonese (17th) at home, Como (4th) away, Bologna (9th) at home, Pisa (20th) away and they end the season at home versus Udinese (11th).
What sticks out for the Partenopei – in addition to the aforementioned direct clash with the Rossoneri in just over one week – is the games against relegation battlers Cremonese, as well as the European hopefuls Lazio, Como and potentially Bologna if they finish strongly.
The average position of the remaining teams to face for Napoli is 10.375, which is exactly the same as Milan. That makes the head-to-head Easter game even more tantalising, because one team could deal a destabilising blow to the other.
Of course, it must be said as a concluding remark, football is not played on paper and according to what the table says. Pressure does funny things, and playing teams near the bottom can be more beneficial than those in mid-table with little to fight for. The pitch will do the talking: let the games begin.
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