Data shows just how improbable a second leg comeback is for Milan against Inter

By Oliver Fisher -

Coming back from a two-goal deficit in any tie is a very tough ask, but historical precedent suggests AC Milan are facing mission impossible tonight.

As our stats piece highlights, Milan have only won one of their last 16 games as the away side in the knockout stages of the Champions League (D8 L7), which came against Bayern Munich in April 2007 (2-0).

Overall, Milan – who need to score at least twice tonight – have only scored 15 goals in 24 away games in the knockout stages of the Champions League, at an average of 0.6 per game.

Not only that, but Calciomercato.com report another statistic that makes the Nerazzurri breathe calmly: Inter have not lost by three or more goals since 2019, and have never done so under Simone Inzaghi.

It was back on the penultimate day of the 2018-19 Serie A season with Luciano Spalletti the head coach that the Nerazzurri sustained a 4-1 defeat against Napoli.

Moreover, Inter have not lost against Milan by three or more goals since 2016, a 3-0 league defeat against the Rossoneri in January of that year.

Tags AC Milan Inter Milan

18 Comments

  1. Our stats are terrible in this situation and Inzaghi cleary owns Pioli. It will take a miracle to overturn this result.

    1. Not only simone beat pioli 3 times in row , last game show di marco beat calabria too easy, most their atack coming from right side of AC Milan . I think that match will be draw 0-0 or 1-1 because house of betting want to win money too and most gambler bet on IM

      1. “Because house of betting want to win money too and most gambler bet on IM”

        What does that has to do with today’s game?

  2. It is impossible for Milan to thwart last week’s defeat. No miracle can save our beloy Milan, the damage has been done!

  3. House of bet: don’t let them know your next score.

    Everyone will bet on merda. But if the score comeback they will be SOB lol

  4. Records and statistics are there to be broken. That being said…we haven’t got a f@@kin chance (please, if you can read or hear this, footballing fairy godmothers prove me wrong).

  5. Early goal could be key. I think if inter scores first there could also be the case of fu** all mentality which Milan could benefit from. Anyhow, forza Milan sempre

  6. Well, FVCK the data.

    Plain and simple.

    I’m always a believer in my side, my colors, and will always be, against all odds. Gotta believe and fight till the very end.

    That’s the right frame of mind to me, the only correct one.

    FORZA MILAN!!!

  7. We need to score first and do it before the break. Inter doesn’t have defensive mids and their defenders are not great (they rely on dominating the midfield with creative players) so it’s very much possible for players like Leao and Theo to break through. BUT Inter will sit back and try to hit us on the counter. We need a perfect performance from our defense.

  8. “We need to score first and do it before the break. Inter doesn’t have defensive mids and their defenders are not great (they rely on dominating the midfield with creative players) so it’s very much possible for players like Leao and Theo to break through. BUT Inter will sit back and try to hit us on the counter. We need a perfect performance from our defense.”

    *

    I will certainly be a very tough nut to crack, undoubtedly. We put ourselves in a very complicated situation: they have a two goal cushion, can dictate the pace of the match as they please and settle the bill in counterattacks.

    In any case, I still believe that a perfectly cohesive and balanced collective performance, with the extra element eventually provided by a player like Rafael Leão or Theo Hernandez, can overturn things.

    Let us pray.

  9. That’s it. We must pray that the man will be today on a scintillating journey, like the one against Napoli recently, in fact.

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