AC Milan won on Saturday night against Fiorentina despite their numerous absences, but there is the collective knowledge that the performance level must increase tomorrow against Borussia Dortmund.
This morning’s edition of La Gazzetta dello Sport (as seen below) confirms that Rafael Leao – the cover man three weeks ago against PSG – will be missing from the game, but Ruben Loftus-Cheek and Olivier Giroud will be back into the side.
The starting line-up for Milan is pretty much certain. Mike Maignan in goal, Calabria-Thiaw-Tomori-Hernandez at the back, Krunic and Reijnders in front of the defence, Loftus-Cheek as attacking midfielder, Chukwueze and Pulisic wide, Giroud up front. Musah, who would be the starter alongside Reijnders, is suspended while Okafor is still out due to injury.
Pioli will do his final tests and evaluations today but the game plan seems to be written. Loftus-Cheek and Giroud, compared to the team that started against Fiorentina, are the big step forward. RLC played half an hour on Saturday night, as per classic return plans, whule Giroud watched everything from the stands.
Milan without Loftus-Cheek are another team, as a quick comparison between the games with him in the starting line-up and those without him shows. The average points drops from 2.4 to 1.3: the sample is very small but, expanding that over a season’s worth of games, that would add up to 42 points difference.
The goals per game plummet (from 2 to 0.8) and Milan lose 19% of their shots on target. It’s easy to conclude that Loftus-Cheek is the multiplier in the attacking phase: he brings physical impact, area solutions, assists. He scores little but you can’t have everything.
Giroud on the other hand nearly always strikes in big games because he is a winner. Nobody like him at Milan plays the important matches well aside from maybe Mike Maignan, and few decide the result like him. Since he arrived in the summer of 2021, Milan have won 58% of their matches with him, a percentage that drops to 44% without the No.9.
The figures say that the attacking production does not change particularly: the shots on average are the same (indeed, they even rise slightly without Giroud) and the goals scored are the same. It means that Giroud doesn’t change the team like Loftus-Cheek but the specific weight of the few things he does is special.
The match plan for Borussia Dortmund will then pass to them. Milan needs a victory to get themselves among the two favourites for qualifying to the round of 16. If that happened, Pioli would have his destiny in his hands at Newcastle. With a defeat, however, Milan would be eliminated, if at the same time PSG won at home against Newcastle, a not exactly unlikely hypothesis.
For this reason, Pioli hopes that his key men, the four-or-five on whom the team depends, are ready for another great night. It’s easy to imagine that it will be an intense match, with the two returning players being decisive.
What the ‘giants’ like Loftus-Cheek do will guide Milan’s bursts and transitions because few like him recover the ball and return. He did very well as an atypical attacking midfielder, who without the ball looks closely at a playmaker or central defender – and with the ball he throws himself into spaces and acts as a reference for passes.
Giroud will do Giroud, as always. Man of the area, centre-forward to lean on, best friend of those looking for a support to go to goal or even just get past a yellow defensive line.
Prediction: Milan 2-1 Dortmund, Forza Milan!
Oh I would donate my left kidney and ball-sack for such a result.
Save the second one for the match on Tyneside….
That’s why I chose parts I have two. 😉
Giroud will be the main man again ,especially if Loftus cheek plays ,,then with pulisic added ..We will beat Dortmund….
We are AC Milan ..
If we win this game we must then have a good chance to reach the last 16
If we do this what an achievement this would be.