AC Milan head into tonight’s game against Newcastle United knowing that qualification for the last 16 of the Champions League will be difficult, but they must give it everything they have.
La Gazzetta dello Sport (seen below) recall the situation that Milan are in: they must win against Newcastle – something that would also seal Europa League as a minimum – and hope that Borussia Dortmund do them a favour by beating PSG.
It is a double roll of the dice where two 6s must be the result. Difficult, but not impossible because in the first game against Newcastle Milan proved to be the stronger side, peppering the visitors at San Siro with 25 shots but failing to score.
Rafael Leao missed the biggest opportunity in the first half with that unfortunate backheel which, remembering it today, hurts even more. Milan have just been hurt by another backheel (Luis Muriel’s for Atalanta) but they have the winger back after a month out. This is the second reason for hope.
Christian Pulisic tried to replace Leao on the left but nobody can hit those same levels as seen in the 2-1 win over PSG when the Portuguese scored the equaliser and was voted the Man of the Match.
At San Siro, it wasn’t just the inaccuracy of the shots that generated the disappointing 0-0 but also the saves of Nick Pope, who is among the best goalkeepers in the world but he is out for months. In the last two Premier League matches, Eddie Howe’s defence has conceded seven goals.
Two of the four goas conceded against Tottenham on Sunday are on Dubravka’s conscience, the Slovakian goalkeeper who replaces the injured Pope, which means that Loris Karius could yet get the nod.
Sven Botman will also be missing, the Dutch gladiator that Maldini wanted and who would have been so useful to the Rossoneri right now. If Pioli has an injury epidemic, Eddie Howe can’t laugh either with eight injured, so that is another point of hope.
Kieran Trippier, the veteran right-back, is going through a nightmare period after the two goals from two turnovers against Everton, plus the two against Tottenham with as many duels lost. One more reason to knock on that side, where Milan have Leao and Theo.
Newcastle are seventh in the Premier League, 11 points from the top, but it’s also true that only Liverpool and Borussia Dortmund have won at St. James’ Park this season. And when the stadium roars, it’s scary. However, only Real Madrid has a level of confidence in the competition equal to that of Milan, who retain a special charisma in the Champions League.
Since 2003-04, i.e. since this format has existed, on 15 occasions a team that had only four or five points on the final day has managed to qualify for the round of 16, including Roma (2015-16) and Atalanta (2019-20).
Eyes will be on events in Paris, where playing out a draw is not as straightforward as it might seem. If the Parisians hold on to try get one, a last-gasp victory for Newcastle would eliminate them. Dortmund are playing for first place in the group which greatly simplifies the draw for the round of 16 and puts UEFA prize money in their pockets.
Many have reproached Pioli for his conservative tactical approach, but you can’t play a purely defensive game if you don’t have defenders and you’re forced to readjust centrally, with Theo Hernandez playing there who sometimes ducks for a cross (like against Frosinone).
The armoured AC Milan in London which secured a 0-0 against Tottenham last March had Tomori, Thiaw and Kalulu in the trenches, protected by Krunic and Tonali. Reijnders’ Milan is something else, programmed to build and be proactive.
