AC Milan are predicted to finish outside of the top four, more specifically in 6th place, in the 2025-26 season of Serie A. At least based on Opta’s simulations.
It has been a relatively strong mercato for Milan despite some heavy departures, replacing Tijjani Reijnders with Ardon Jashari and Malick Thiaw with Koni De Winter. Furthermore, experience has been added through Luka Modric, as well as potential with Samuele Ricci.
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One of the main question marks is Pervis Estupinan, who has been brought in as Theo Hernandez’s replacement. Due to being a bit injury-prone, there is some worry among the fans and he didn’t look brilliant in pre-season either.
Milan the underdogs
In any case, Milan have a solid foundation and Max Allegri is to thank for that, restoring the positive atmosphere that is needed at a club like the Rossoneri. Despite this, Opta’s season prediction – based on their simulations – has the team finishing in 6th place.
The likes of Inter, Napoli, Atalanta, Roma and Juventus are all expected to finish ahead of Milan, in that order as well, meaning the Nerazzurri would lift the Scudetto. Furthermore, Opta states that the Rossoneri only have a 38.1% chance of finishing in the top four.
Of course, these simulations have to be taken with a pinch of salt, especially since Allegri is expected to focus more on team effort than individual brilliance per se.
Across the past two seasons, Opta’s supercomputer has shown mixed accuracy on Serie A. In 2023–24, it nailed Inter as champions and correctly kept Milan and Juventus among the elite, but missed badly on Napoli (forecasted 2nd, finished mid-table) while surprise packages Atalanta and Bologna forced their way into the top four. In 2024–25, its call was stronger: four of the projected top five (Inter, Atalanta, Juventus, Roma) finished there, though in a different order, while Napoli, forecast only mid-table, stormed to the Scudetto.
Take nothing from this prediction. Just numbers with no human element. Is it taking into account players that basically haven’t had proper rest since Euro 2024 given all the intense games and intl comps? Does it take into account players private lives and emotions? Does it take into account other factors? No.
Yes. And this season it’s to be taken with an even larger grain of salt. Inter, Milan, Atalanta, Roma, Lazio and Fiorentina have all changed coaches.
-Inter, while managing to keep their squad intact, have appointed an absolute unknown as a coach. It’s hard for me to believe they will win the title. I think they will be top 4.
-Napoli, for me, is the favorite for the title. Most importantly they kept Conte, and then they’ve added some interesting names to the team. Their weakness might be in not being able to handle domestic and European competition, but this remains to be seen. I think they will be champions.
-Juventus are continuing with Tudor, who I rate, but I think their squad has holes in defense and midfield. Still I think they will be tough and solid, but not title winners. I think they will be top 4.
-Roma appointed Gasperini and have a solid squad that they’re trying to add to, although they might get rid of a key midfielder. I think they will be 5th.
-Lazio has reappointed Sarri, a good coach, but as usual that club is a disaster and is banned for two transfer windows. I think they will finish 6th-8th.
-Atalanta has changed coach and I think Juric was not the right call. They lost their top scorer and their best overall player is pushing to leave. I think it’s the end of a cycle (if not an era) for them and I seriously doubt they will finish top 4. I think they will be 6th-8th.
Fiorentina appointed Allegri and has a decent squad, but they’re not stronger than the other top 8 clubs. I think they will finish 6th-8th.
-Bologna kept Italiano, but has once again sold a couple of key players. I think they will struggle to finish higher than the above clubs. I think they will finish 9th.
-Milan. Lots of transfers and Allegri. I think we chose the best coach available to bring this group back to the CL, but given the squad turnover things might not come together in time. Still, I think we’ve made good additions and I’m going to be optimistic about Allegri. I think we’ll finish top 4.
well said
Dang. I totally forgot about Lazio being banned… financial problems or irregularities?
One small note, but Fiorentina appointed Pioli. I know he’s like a second Allegri in a way for how long he was at Milan hahah… But I get what you mean.
LOL, whoops. I was jumping around when typing and on my phone. I think brainfarted due to the second stint for each.
Good analysis you did. Anyway, mercato is not over so let’s see what other players buy Inter or Juventus. Do not see Roma in the top 4 at all, and I doubt Gasperini eat panettone to be honest. Inter is also difficult to say, they have not lost players but they are not younger at all…. their mercato has been so and so so let’s see….
For me Napoli are the favourites hands down. They have added great players like KDB, Beukema, Noa Lang, Lucca…. they have a lot of depth. They are, without a doubt, the ones with more chance for the title… great manager and great players
Allegri: ‘Milan show respect to Bari, objective is top four’
lets start with 3 points
FORZA MILAN !
Bari game is coppa Italia mate
OK
then next one vs Cremonese
So Atalanta after losing Gasperini and also most of their goals by Lookman and Retegui? Roma being ahead makes sense, they didn’t sell anyone and reinforced.
On my opinion we are stronger and united than Atalanta, Roma and Juventus .
Predictive modeling. Yeah not to be taken with any sort of credibility. This one had more misses than hits. Of course, it is now up to the team and coach to do what is required.
Napoli not only kept Conte but made their squad also way better, so obvious N1;
Atalanta with Juric at 3rd… don’t make me laugh… everyone knows that they are done after Gasperini left;
Merda hasn’t signed anyone of value, only competition for Dumfries. most of their squad is too old now (Shawarmanoglu is on decline, they still have deVrij, Darmian, Acerbi, Sommer). Chivu is biggest question mark, so max 2nd place and I still think we will finish above them;
Roma is in rebuild and don’t have anyone significant on their team to carry them. Dovbyk needs to turn super Sayian to carry them;
Juve are 50-50… Tudor has yet to win against any top teams
1: Napoli
2: AC Milan
3: Merda
4-5: Juve/Roma
6: Lazio
7: Fiorentina
8: Atalanta
“ everyone knows that they are done after Gasperini left;” …
come back to me in winter… but you will try to BS your way out
When did I try to “BS my way out”. If I’m wrong I admit it every time. Grow up
If you’re wrong you admit it every time? LMAOOOOOOOOOO LMAOLOLOLOLOLOL Are you a comedian now? You never admit anything. You just make 50 posts a day under every article whining and posting ChatGPT generated essays.
6,7th place is about right.. 5 is the best scenario
Milan is gonna have a disaster defense in new season. LB, RB, and backup CB Be winter are terrible. Positive side is Allgeri is defensive coach. If using 4 man defense, Milan is gonna be unstable. Three CBs formation is better due to bad defense squads
Lmao absolutely wrong. De Winter is terrible? How do you figure that? He was part of a solid Genoa defense. Big words. I bet it we signed a 40 million euro Italian 18 year old you’d be predicting number 1.
Just plain salty.
Yea I also think that Atalanta after Gasperini won’t be the same. The structure is still there but it wont be the same. Roma might be the big suprice for top 4 now. Napoli/Inter both still good even tho Inter is at a cross road now. As for Milan i think we got a lot of good players in the summer that should make us a candidate for top 4. Unless Alegri is really washed up i think we should make it in top 4. I put Milan ahead of Juve and Atalanta on paper.
We changed just as much as other teams. However we don’t know how Chivu and Tudor are going to do with Inter and Juve respectively, though I think Tudor has Juve playing well from the games I saw in pre. Napoli is still the strongest. For me I think Napoli v June for the title. Then us, Rome teams, Atalanta Bologna, and Como fighting our for the remaining UCL spots. I think Como is going to have a strong season
Obviously people will be put out by this but this is realistic and this is the sort of thing we should bear in mind if we’re battling for third or fourth. We shouldn’t expect to be Scudetto challengers – it’s possible, but it would be a bonus – top 4 for us this year will be a good achievement and people need to be realistic with that, otherwise there’s an unfair expectation on the players we have.
We have the fifth biggest payroll this season (and that includes Origi and Bennacer as two of our bigger earners on a combined ~15M gross). We finished eighth last season. We have huge squad turnover and Jashari and Ricci might become legends but probably not in their first year. Let’s be realistic here. For once.
Like you I prefer it also this way as it serves as motivation imo . Or at least if I were a player that’s how I’d view it. Being underdogs is a good thing too. That’s what won us our last title.
Wow we have people on here saying De Winter, Athekame and Estupinan are all terrible. Imagine that. Just because we didn’t sign an unproven 18 year old.
Napoli are the favourites. Atalanta will decline this season. The race for the other 3 UCL spots will be between Inter, Milan, Juve and Roma. I expect to see a lot of ugly football again this season.
NApoli is favorites. But after that, i wouldnt trust any team. Inter is getting old, new coach, transitition time. Juve and Us are on similar boats. Good on paper, quality players, a decent coach but too many variables. gasperini worked awesome at atalanta but will it work at Roma? Roma is a tough place to play and pressures will certainty be higher than in Bergamo. Also, He is new there, and Atalanta was a long project. No doubt Gasperini can do great there, but will it be immediate? I’m not sure. Same goes for atalanta, Best players left (not new to them, happens every year). Maybe Juric can pull a Arne Slot and just keep the machine going… who knows. Again, apart from napoli, a lot of clubs have a lot of unknowns. It’s anyone’s game. And to throw an extra variable, Conte, year 2, is the year he starts the shtshow with his players or the owner. lol it’s his trademark. Year 2 or 3 starts a shtshow and leaves on bad terms. who knows. I know Milan with Allegri will be very pragmatic, and a ton of 1-0 wins, but perhaps that’s what we need.
Napoli 1st Milan 2nd is more likely.
I think Napoli is head and shoulder above the rest this season, they managed the mercato well and reinforced beautifully. Unless Conte has a sudden brawl against ADL, the Scudetto is theirs to lose.
As for the chasing pack; it’s a bit more balanced. Personally I think the first “tier” of chasing pack are: Inter, Milan, Juventus, Roma. Personally and maybe a bit biased, I think we ought to aim for 2nd; considering we only have the league to focus on. I also think that Gasp is the X factor and will be able to squeeze Roma into 4th. For the third and fifth it’s a toss up either Inter/Juve, maybe with Juventus as third and Inter fifth.
Then it will be followed by another tier of European place chasers; Bologna, Lazio, Atalanta, Fiorentina and Como. Bologna is a solid team with continuity; I expect them to be in the running. Had Lazio not been banned for transfer, I’d list them higher; but maybe it’s also a blessing in disguise considering Sarri coached all of the current players bar 2 if I am not mistaken. Atalanta would be struggling with new coach (while talented, but not yet in Gasp level). They also lost two of their main attackers and haven’t even replaced them yet for some reason. Fiorentina, we all love Pioli but I dont know if Kean is a one season wonder or can he replicate the form under him? Como is an interesting one; I think there’s a coach in Fabregas and how he’s been given free rein to mold the team as he pleased will certainly be helpful in the quests to make it to Europe. I think if we’re gonna have a surprise package, it would be Como, but I suppose it’s no longer a surpise when everyone is already keeping an eye out for them.
My prediction:
Napoli
—
Milan
—
Juventus
Roma
Inter
—
Bologna
Lazio
Atalanta
Fiorentina
Como
Do you think you are in FIFA Career Mode?
Thanks Opta! You saved me time, money and nerves as I will not be watching another one disappointing season of AC Milan. Instead, I will go out, enjoy the nature, ride a bicycle, go hiking etc. Awesome times are starting today!
Milan is very happy to not have dumb fans like you