Carlo Pellegatti has provided his calculations on what he thinks AC Milan need from their remaining 16 league games in order to get a top four finish.
It has not been the start to the season that Milan wanted domestically as they have regularly dropped frustrating points and when they have had the chance to close the gap to the teams above they often haven’t done so.
What is means is that the Rossoneri face a real uphill struggle to make the top four (or five, if Serie A remains above LaLiga in the league coefficient ranking), all while having to balance the Champions League play-offs and hoping to have a deep cup run.
Speaking in his column for MilanNews, Pellegatti praised the work of CEO Giorgio Furlani and the rest of the management with regards to the transfer window, and spoke about what is needed to achieve the minimum objective.
“Milan start at -7 from fourth place and at -5 from fifth place despite having one game less. There are therefore 16 matches left until the end of Serie A. I have studied over the last ten years how many points were needed to finish fourth,” he said.
“I list them starting from the 2014-2015 season, 64 points. Then, in the following championship, 67, then again 72, 72, 69, 78, 78, 70, 70 and 69 in the 2023-2024 season. It can be deduced that Milan must aim for a score between 69 and 74, removing the lowest and highest.
“This means that the Rossoneri, currently at 35 points, must earn between 34 and 39 points. In sixteen games, therefore, Conceicao must aim for at least 11 victories, three draws and can only afford two defeats.
“On the other hand, all the points thrown away in the first five months must be remedied in this final part of the season, considering that Milan also has the sweet, sweet weight of the Champions League.
“In short, it is important that these concerns have been well received by the management. ‘We are not happy’ Ibra said, without hiding behind embarrassing screens. And that no more stormy drafts of air come out from the secrets of Milanello.
“Today all energies must be projected towards an exhilarating and very difficult end of the season. ‘We are not happy!’. Even the disappointed, but always passionate Rossoneri fans have been shouting it for a long time!”
I think winter transfer window showed how Red Bird is going to do in case club doesn’t catch 4th positions. Sales and loans are going to happen and probably they will not buy anything.
We are at 26, if someone leaves, others have to come… we are in this mess because of these big brainers anyway… if they want to waste all the efforts that Milan had, it’s on them… they will lose fans that started to come back and will have to sell for way less than what they bought the club for…
I think you guys will overreact to everything and paint everything in a negative way because you are still salty about Maldini getting sacked even 2 years later
Funny, that’s basically what I posed in the “Ball passes to Conceicao” article: I calculate that we need about 38pts out of our last 16 games. That’s something like 12-2-2, 11-5-0 or 13-0-3, which is a huge ask. I’m hoping Serie A pick up a 5th CL spot as insurance, because I think we’ll need it.
AND to have the likes of Lazio, Juve and Fiorentina to drop points as well. Huge task considering results are needed now. no “time to gel” thing
Juve and Fiorentina is literally struggling to string 2 wins together, why do you love them so much?
5th was more possible if Milan, Juve and Atalanta did better in the 8th match of UEFA league, now it is distant
The calculation is wrong cause he takes the actual 4th place points while for knowing how many points are needed for 4th we need to compare to 5th place and add a point. Then it seems there have been more than average amount of draws so far which reduces the total amount of points and therefore the average point per position.
Nevertheless, I think it should be totally clear by now that the situation is serious and we can’t rely on becoming 4th just because the team should actually be good enough. Results count. So any of you guys, stop complaining after another dirty last minute win, support the team.
Milan, Juve and Atalanta will still qualify… it’s either Milan vs Inter in best 16 or Inter vs Juve, so in top 8 there will be at least 1 Italian team… Atalanta also face either Lille or Aston Villa after Brugge and I’m pretty sure they will also be in top 8… and the 3 Italian teams I mentioned at least one will play against Atletico or Leverkusen, so semi-finals is also plausible… this is only UCL, Europa and Conference also count, if Lazio continue like this they will reach the finals…
A lot depends on real dropping out against city or not
The January signings were all welcome but likely too little, too late, to enable ACM to win the required number of games to qualify for the CL next season. It will be a miracle if the club achieves that goal. Top players and a top coach should have been brought in last summer. A squad assembled on the cheap can’t compete at the highest levels. Hopefully, the owner has learned its lesson and will henceforth invest in procuring the best players.
No coach – whether it be Ancelotti, Guardiola, Slot, Zidane, Klopp, Conte, Tuchel, or any of the other thoroughbreds who are considered the stars of their profession – can achieve success with average resources. Given the best players at ACM, Chelsea, Bayern Munich, and Real Madrid, Don Carlo was a winner; but with only mediocre tools at his disposal at Everton and Napoli, he was an also-ran.
Conceicao is a fine coach. Give him a squad of real quality and depth and he’ll turn ACM again into a force to be reckoned with in world football.
Yes, as a long-standing Rossoneri fan, I’m still sad about Paolo Maldini’s departure. He was the widely respected face of ACM – a legendary figure who in an increasingly fungible and amorphous sport was a fixture who helped give our club its special identity.
Cardinale is an intelligent man, but not wise. ACM is a cultural institution – not just a commercial asset. You strip a cultural institution of its identity at your peril. Maldini, who helped guide ACM to a Scudetto and a CL semi-final, should have been retained – not unceremoniously fired. Cardinale struck a dagger at the heart of ACM by getting rid of him.
You don’t, as an owner, win the affection and loyalty of fans with such a move. It will bite you back hard when, as is the case now, the team is struggling to compete at the highest levels, and the patience of fans is wearing thin.
Maldini, both as a player and an administrator, was a winner; Cardinale is still a work in progress.
48 point available inshallah ac Milan is capable of collecting more than 39