AC Milan face a very tough task tonight as they must overhaul a two-goal deficit against Inter if they are to reach the final of the Champions League.
The official website recalls how there is only one team who have overturned a first leg deficit of two or more goals at this stage of the competition. It was back in 2018-19 when Liverpool won 4-0 at Anfield after losing 3-0 at the Nou Camp. Two of those four goals (including the winning fourth) were scored by Divock Origi.
Milan have not won a derby against Inter with at least a two-goal difference since January 2016 (3-0) and has not managed to beat them with at least a two-goal difference away from home since October 2003 (3-1), if of course we exclude the 2005 Champions quarter-final second leg which was 3-0 but via forfeit.
Simone Inzaghi’s side sare yet to concede a goal against Milan in matches played outside Serie A (with eight previous games) and only once have they failed to make it through the round or win the trophy (in the 2017-18 Coppa Italia semi-final, two 0-0 draws and a penalty loss).
Inter will try to reach their sixth Champions League final and their first since 2009-10 under Jose Mourinho. Should he get through, Inzaghi would be the fifth Italian coach to take an Italian team to a UCL final after Fabio Capello with AC Milan (three times), Marcello Lippi with Juventus (four), Carlo Ancelotti with AC Milan (three) and Massimiliano Allegri with Juventus (two).
Inter have never been behind at any point in the knockout stages of this Champions League (3W, 2D) this season and have kept a clean sheet in four of their last five matches.
Moving on to more tactical points, the Nerazzurri are great at pressing high, winning possession and looking for the wide lanes to trigger counters.
In the current edition of the competition for example, Inter have recovered the ball and started their own attacks in open play at an average distance of 38.5 meters from their own goal: this is the fifth-deepest recovery height of all teams in this year’s competition.
Lautaro Martinez has seven goals against Milan already, while they will also have Romelu Lukaku to call upon. With his brace against Sassuolo at the weekend, he has contributed to 12 goals since the start of March.
The Belgian is in form, and Inzaghi is likely to continue with his trend of building down the left flank where the chemistry between Dimarco, Bastoni and Barella works wonders and causes real issues.
Federico Dimarco has provided five assists from open play in this Champions League (including one in the first leg against Milan), a record in the 2022-23 edition.
It is also the highest number of assists achieved by an Inter player in a single season in the competition (since 2003-04), along with Samuel Eto’o in 2010-11 and Wesley Sneijder in 2009-10.
Alessandro Bastoni has taken part in more sequences that have ended in a goal than any other central defender in this Champions League (8). The 24 year-old is first for Inter in the competition for balls played (617), forward runs with the ball (70) and passes towards the opponent’s box (65).
