AC Milan are back in Coppa Italia action just over a week after their last 16 tie against Cagliari, with a semi-final place up for grabs this time against Atalanta.
Milan have certainly had an upturn of late after the draw against Salernitana before Christmas, winning three games in a row against Sassuolo, Cagliari and most recently Empoli.
That has eased some of the pressure surrounding the squad and Stefano Pioli’s position too, but everything before goes out of the window when it comes to knockout cup ties.
Game date: Wednesday, January 10
Kick-off time: 21:00 (CET)
Venue: San Siro
Referee: Marco Di Bello (VAR: Valeri)
Team news
There was another addition to the treatment room after Sunday’s 3-0 win against Empoli as Alessandro Florenzi was forced off with a flexor issue. An MRI scan on Monday showed he has avoided a serious issue, but he will miss the game against La Dea and should return for the weekend.
The full-back joins the likes of Marco Sportiello, Marco Pellegrino, Malick Thiaw, Pierre Kalulu, Fikayo Tomori and Mattia Caldara among those who are injured in the rearguard.
Tommaso Pobega, Rade Krunic and Ismael Bennacer (AFCON) are all absent from the midfield too, while Noah Okafor and Samuel Chukwueze (AFCON) will not be available in attack.
Di Marzio reports that Pioli will not rotate like he did for the Cagliari game a week ago given the importance of the match. The formation chosen will be 4-3-3, which could also become 4-2-3-1 based on the position of Ruben Loftus-Cheek.
Mike Maignan will be in goal and the centre-back pairing will involve Theo Hernandez again after his excellent performances there recently, with Matteo Gabbia tipped to get his first start since returning. Davide Calabria and Alex Jimenez should be the full-backs.
In the middle of the field should be Loftus-Cheek joined by Tijjani Reijnders and Yunus Musah, with the USA international also ready to make a first start since coming back from a muscle problem.
In attack, Christian Pulisic will be confirmed on the right, with Rafael Leao on the left and Luka Jovic should be the striker, with Olivier Giroud initially on the bench after playing a full 90 in Tuscany on Sunday.
Predicted Milan XI (4-3-3): Maignan; Calabria, Gabbia, Theo Hernandez, Jimenez; Musah, Reijnders, Loftus-Cheek; Pulisic, Jovic, Rafael Leao.
The opponents
Atalanta come into this fixture off the back of some very strong form, which has seen them win three times of their previous fixtures in Serie A and the Coppa Italia, which saw them brush Sassuolo aside, beating them 3-1 at the Gewiss stadium.
After already beating Milan this season, Gasperini will have to use a similar blueprint, if he is to finally get his side back into the Coppa Italia semi-finals. In recent years, the final four stage has eluded him and La Dea – they have succumbed to one-goal deficits in their previous two attempts to get there, against Inter and Fiorentina.
Given the importance of the competition, there, like Milan’s side, are expected to be very few changes. Tuttomercatoweb writes that Juan Musso is expected to start in goal, with Berat Djimsiti, Sead Kolasinac and Giorgio Scalvini ahead of him.
Emil Holm and Davide Zappacota will start on the flanks for the Nerazzurri, with Gasperini set to name a Dutch duo in midfield of Marten de Roon and Teun Koopmeiners.
It looks like the Italian coach will, again, name a triangular front three. He looks likely to name Mario Pasalic and Alexsei Miranchuk behind Gianluca Scamacca.
It remains to be seen whether Charles De Ketelaere will start the game on Wednesday evening, with the Belgian forward suffering from a muscle injury that could prevent him from making a return to the San Siro from the start. However, there is a chance he will feature in the clash, as Gian Piero Gasperini has not ruled him out of the clash.
Predicted Atalanta XI (3-4-2-1): Musso; Scalvini, Djimsiti, Kolasinac; Holm, de Roon, Koopmeiners, Zappacosta; Pasalic; Miranchuk, Scamacca.
Head to head
Wednesday’s fixture will be the 144th clash between the two sides, ranking as the Diavolo’s 10th most-played fixture across all competitions. The sides first faced in Serie A in 1937, where Milan beat La Dea 3-0, and most recently was last month.
Milan have been the victor in 47.9% of the fixtures between the two sides, winning 69 times, losing 28 times, but there is a desire for revenge after what happened just a few weeks ago.
Goals from Olivier Giroud and Luka Jovic seemed to have earned Pioli’s men a hard-fought draw at the Gewiss Stadium until substitute Luis Muriel punished the 10-man Rossoneri with a backheel in added time to make it 3-2 and steal the points.
The last time the local rivals faced each other in the Coppa Italia was in the year 2000, with Milan emerging 5-4 victors on aggregate in the two-legged quarter-final.
Match stats:
➤ After remaining unbeaten in the first seven matches of the Coppa Italia, with five wins and two draws in that run, Milan have lost two of the last four matches (2W) played against Atalanta in the competition, including the most recent, in the match of second leg of the quarter-finals of the 2000-01 edition (the Rossoneri still went through, thanks to an aggregate score of 5-4).
➤ Atalanta have never won in the five Coppa Italia matches played away against Milan: four defeats, including the last two, and a draw in that period, without ever managing to keep a clean sheet (11 goals conceded in total, for an average of 2.2 per match).
➤ Milan have won their last two Serie A home matches against Atalanta without conceding a goal, after the Rossoneri had failed to win the win at the Meazza in any of the previous seven (D4, L3), with five different coaches (Stefano Pioli, Gennaro Gattuso, Vincenzo Montella, Sinisa Mihajlovic and Filippo Inzaghi).
➤ Milan have won all of their last four matches played in all competitions at the San Siro (three in Serie A and one in the cup); the last time in which the Rossoneri achieved more consecutive home wins, again considering all competitions, dates back to the period between April and September 2022 (seven in that case, one of these against the Bergamo team).
➤ Atalanta have never repeated the same result in their last nine away matches in all competitions (3W, 3D, 3L), but they have only found success in one of their last five matches played away from home (against Raków Czestochowa in the Europa League).
➤ Milan have reached the quarter-finals of the Coppa Italia in four of their last five participations at this stage (the exception being their elimination at the hands of Inter in the 2020-21 season), after having been eliminated at this stage of the competition in four of five previous editions.
➤ Atalanta have alternated a victory (4) with a defeat (3) in each of the last seven Coppa Italia matches; the Bergamo side have been eliminated in seven of the last 10 times in which they have reached the quarter-finals of the competition, including the two most recent: 2-3 defeat at home against Fiorentina in 2021-22 and 1-0 defeat against Inter in 2022-23.
➤ On the one hand, Milan (41) are the team that have carried out the most direct attacks in the current Serie A season, but on the other hand only Inter (7) have scored more goals following an attacking recovery than Atalanta (five).
Ones to watch
With Matteo Gabbia being touted to start this game, this almost writes itself. His return was hugely spoken of in the run-up to this month, and he instantly becomes a player to watch on his first start back for the Rossoneri, especially given the magnitude of the game.
Another player making a return to the starting eleven is Yunus Musah. The American has just recovered from a muscle injury and is available from the get-go on Wednesday.
Should Charles De Ketelaere return from injury in time, he will, be a key figure for Atalanta, who could dictate the game. However, even if he appears from the bench, he can cause danger, with three goals and two assists in his last five games.
Additionally, Gianluca Scamacca could cause problems for the Rossoneri’s back line if they are not careful. His stature makes him a difficult player to face, but partner this with his intelligence and deadly finishing and he can cause headaches, if the defence are not constantly alert.
Prediction
Milan really need to win this one, not just because of the chance for revenge and the opportunity to be one of four teams playing for the trophy, but above all to keep the positive recent momentum going especially ahead of a tough game against Roma at the weekend.
AC Milan 2-1 Atalanta
AC Milan 3-1 Atalanta
Naturally it will go to penalties so Milan-players have to work overtime and waste energy before the very important Roma-match.