Opta: Serie A ‘99.8%’ sure to have five Champions League spots – six also within reach

By Isak Möller -

Serie A will likely have five spots in the 2024-25 edition of the Champions League thanks to the performances in European competitions this season. According to a report, it’s now more or less certain that a fifth spot will be awarded to the Italian Federation. 

As per the new Champions League format, which we have done a deep dive into, the two top federations from the previous season will get an extra spot for the ‘League Phase’. The latter is known as the group stage in the current format, and so in Italy’s case, it means five teams would qualify.

According to a prediction carried out by Opta, as cited by Corriere dello Sport, Italy has a 99.8% chance of getting one of the two extra spots with 18,428 coefficient points so far this season. Germany (16,785) and England (16,750) are currently second and third, with a 41.8% and 57.8% chance respectively to clinch the final extra spot.

Italy still has 4/7 teams left in the European competitions, namely Atalanta, Fiorentina, Milan and Roma. Even though one of the latter two will be knocked out, it also means that Italy for sure will have a team in the Europa League semi-finals.

Another interesting thing to note is that Italy could actually have six slots for the Champions League next season. Should one of Roma and Atalanta finish outside the top four in the league, but win the Europa League, then that would be a reality.

Tags AC Milan Champions League Serie A


  1. I’m not sure it is great to have 6 sides in the CL.
    The Italian teams were so poor this year with the likes of Lazio and Napoli falling apart.

    Serie A teams need more stability in managers and players. Otherwise each year we get some teams doing well like Napoli and Lazio last year, they then qualify for CL, sell players and fire managers and as a result do not represent the league well in Europe.

    If Bologna qualify for next season CL and this summer sell all their best players and maybe lose their coach, they will be an embarrassment in the CL
    Also the less spots we have for CL the harder it is to qualify, so teams must be ambitious, not just cruise along with mediocre squads knowing they will get top 6 anyway

    1. “Serie A teams need more stability in managers and players.”

      Yet the viewers at this forum keep demanding the manager changed, selling half the squad and buying a whole half starting eleven every year 😂

      Btw I somewhat agreed with what you said SJF, but on the other hand, the more teams in Europe will means more money to build the team and more attraction for somewhat lower grade of talent (that isn’t bought by biggest team)… since the main reason the teams keep selling their best players and buy new talents is to keep the economy going.

      1. Good point made. With Champions league, Serie A don’t need to keep selling their star players. However, some have to do that to get the big bucks, to balance their books. As long as they can get quality replacements, that improves the league a lot. Milan’s comeback has forced the others to spend. The league has gone to a higher level, and a lot of the players that came in have improved on individual levels. As things stand, Milan has more than 6 players that will attract big money from abroad, if we were to put them on the market – Maignan, Leao, Theo, Tomori, Reijnders, Pulisic, Loftus-Cheek. Even Gabbia, has improved significantly.

  2. “Should one of Roma and Atalanta finish outside the top four in the league, but win the Europa League, then that would be a reality”.

    *Should the Europa League winner finish outside the top 5 I’m guessing. As finishing 5th should still be within the number of teams granted by the rules ,therefore wouldn’t necessarily need to win the Europa League to qualify.

    ( I’m posting too quickly? LOL. It’s my first post since Thursday. Confused my account with another one I guess)

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