After the mid-week draw, AC Milan will be looking to get back to winning ways against Parma, a team they also need to get revenge against.
Milan are entering a crucial part of the season, with just 13 games left and Inter pushing on at the top. In short, they need as many points as they can get, and after the draw in the reverse fixture, they need to claim all of them against Parma.
Read SempreMilan ad-free and get access to exclusive news. Click here for a free trial!
Massimiliano Allegri admitted during his presser that it won’t be easy, having been impressed by what Parma have done lately. On the other hand, the Rossoneri have the quality and thus need to perform at their best, as they are required to do.
Game date: Sunday, February 22
Kick-off time: 18:00 (CET)
Venue: San Siro
Referee: Marco Piccinini (VAR: Giacomo Camplone)
Team news
During the aforementioned press conference, Allegri confirmed that all players are at his disposal except for Santiago Gimenez. In other words, while a long absence was feared for Strahinja Pavlovic, the Serbian will grit his teeth and be on the bench tomorrow.
With him on the bench, Allegri looks set to field a defensive trio of Fikayo Tomori, Matteo Gabbia and Davide Bartesaghi. The latter stands out here as he normally plays as the left wing-back, but he has played in the role before and can certainly do well there.
This decision probably stems from the fact that Koni De Winter played 90 minutes against Como, so the gaffer might not want to risk him so close to the derby. In any case, with Bartesaghi further down, Pervis Estupinan will get a chance on the left-hand side.
On the opposite side, Alexis Saelemaekers should now be ready for 90 minutes after coming off the bench last time out. The midfielder closest to him should be Ruben Loftus-Cheek, who missed the mid-week clash due to illness, and Adrien Rabiot will also be back in the eleven.
It seems Ardon Jashari’s impressive mid-week display won’t get him another start here, with Luka Modric set to complete the midfield. Allegri probably wants a bit more strength against Parma rather than ball control, hence the decision to go with RLC.
Up front, it will be a battle between Christopher Nkunku and Christian Pulisic, with the American currently leading the race. Allegri said that he’s in much better condition now and that is encouraging to hear, given just how important he can be for the team.
Leao is the only given up front, but despite the goal last time out, he too must improve and show what he’s capable of. It should also be noted that Rabiot, Zachary Athekame and Youssouf Fofana are one yellow card away from suspension.
Predicted Milan XI (3-5-2): Maignan; Tomori, Gabbia, Bartesaghi; Saelemaekers, Loftus-Cheek, Modric, Rabiot, Estupinan; Pulisic, Leao.
Predicted Milan bench: Terracciano, Torriani, Athekame, Odogu, Pavlovic, De Winter, Fofana, Ricci, Jashari, Nkunku, Füllkrug.
Injuries & suspensions: Gimenez.
The opponents
All things considered, it has been a pretty decent season for Parma. With 29 points, they are in 12th place and thus quite a long way from the relegation zone, which is eight points down. This has put them in a very comfortable position for the season finale.
The discussion could have been very different just two games ago, though, as Parma are coming off two consecutive wins and thus broke loose from the immediate danger. The fact that it was two stoppage-goals winners as well (vs. Bologna and Hellas Verona) has surely boosted the confidence.
Carlos Cuesta, who used to be an assistant of Mikel Arteta at Arsenal, has thus done a decent job in his first season as a head coach. The reverse fixture was further proof of that as Parma came from two goals behind to draw 2-2, starting the second half with commendable aggressiveness.
It helps when you have exciting young players like Adrian Bernabe (3 goals and 2 assists) and Mateo Pellegrini (7 goals and 1 assist). That often ends up being the saving grace for teams who are predicted to battle in the bottom; if you can get a few players going, that can mean a whole lot.
Interestingly, while Cuesta was initially expected to implement a possession model at Parma, it seems he has adapted a little to suit the club’s immediate needs. In fact, they have one of the lowest average possession percentages in Serie A with 44.8%, clearly comfortable with a lurking role too.
The bad news for Parma is that Alessandro Circati, who has started every game he has been available for this season, is suspended due to the yellow card accumulation. Mariano Troilo will be his replacement and although he’s not terrible, he got sent off in his last game.
Another player that will miss the game is the starting goalkeeper Zion Suzuki, who had been linked with Milan before Mike Maignan’s renewal. I see him as a rather mistake-prone keeper, even if he’s capable of making some good saves too, so it’s not a huge blow for the Gialloblu.
Predicted Parma XI (5-3-2): Corvi; Britschgi, Delprato, Troilo, Valenti, Valeri; Bernabe, Nicolussi Caviglia, Keita; Strefezza, Pellegrino.
Predicted Parma bench: Rinaldi, Casentini, Drobnic, F. Carboni, Ordonez, Cremaschi, Estevez, Ondrejka, Oristanio, Sorensen, Elphege, Mikolajewski.
Injuries & suspensions: Circati, Frigan, Suzuki, Ndiaye, and Almqvist.
Head to head
Tomorrow’s encounter will be the 74th between these two teams, with Milan currently on 38 wins and Parma on 17, while 18 games ended all square. The Rossoneri are clearly the favourites, especially when you consider home games, with only one defeat in the last 19 games.
The reverse fixture was a frustrating one for Allegri’s as they squandered a 2-0 lead, conceding late in the first half and early in the second. What made it even worse is that Pulisic and Saelemaekers missed one golden opportunity each to restore the lead, left alone with the keeper.
The last encounter at San Siro, meanwhile, ended 3-2 after Milan scored two stoppage-time goals (!) to clinch all three points. Pulisic, Reijnders and Chukwueze were the goalscorers in that one, and only the American is still in the squad.
Key facts and stats
➤ After their 2-2 draw earlier this season, Milan and Parma could draw both of their Serie A matches in a single season for the third time, after 1993/94 and 2007/08. Additionally, in 14 of the last 15 Serie A matches between these two sides, both teams have scored (averaging 3.9 goals per game), with the only exception being Milan’s 1-0 victory on 1st December 2019.
➤ Parma are the side against whom AC Milan currently have their longest scoring streak in Serie A, netting in 19 consecutive matches. The Gialloblù could become only the fourth side, after Cagliari, Genoa and Sampdoria, against whom the Rossoneri have scored in 20 or more successive top-flight games.
➤ AC Milan have won eight of their last 10 home Serie A matches against Parma (D1 L1), scoring an average of 2.7 goals per game in these encounters. However, Parma have found the net in each of their last eight away games against the Rossoneri, having never reached nine consecutive away top-flight matches scoring against them.
➤ AC Milan are unbeaten in their last 24 Serie A matches (W15 D9) and could record a run of at least 25 games without defeat in a single top-flight season for only the second time in their history, after the 34-match streak that lasted throughout the 1991/92 campaign.
➤ Parma have collected 29 points in this Serie A season after 25 games – in their previous five top-flight campaigns, they have only registered more points at this stage on one occasion (35 in 2019-20, a season in which they finished 11th).
➤ AC Milan have a shot conversion rate of 12.6% in Serie A, the second-highest in the competition behind Inter (13.0%), while Parma are last in this ranking (6.2%); the Crociati also have an Expected Goals value of 23.1, with only Lecce having a lower figure (20.2).
➤ Parma have scored the joint-fewest first-half goals (seven) in Serie A this season; in addition, the Gialloblu would have just 23 points this campaign when considering only first-half results – only Pisa (20) and Fiorentina (22) have accrued fewer.
➤ One of Adrián Bernabé’s four Serie A goals, all of which have come at home, including his last against Hellas Verona last time out, was against AC Milan in a 2-2 draw in the reverse fixture. The Spanish midfielder has won nine fouls in the final third, a figure bettered by only one other midfielder in Serie A, Adrien Rabiot (12).
➤ Among players with 10+ goals in Europe’s top five leagues since the start of last season, only Mikel Merino (64%) has scored a higher percentage of headed goals than Mateo Pellegrino (60% – six of ten); the 2001-born player could also score in consecutive Serie A appearances for the first time.
➤ Rafael Leão has equalled his goal tally from the whole of last season (eight goals in 34 matches) and could score at least nine Serie A goals for the first time since 2023/24. The Portuguese has also been involved in three goals (two goals, one assist) in his last four top-flight games against Parma, including a goal in the reverse fixture which was his second penalty goal in Serie A (after scoring against Fiorentina last October).
Ones to watch
Bartesaghi looks set to start as a centre-back tomorrow, with Estupinan given a chance in his usual role, and I have no doubts that he will do well. We have to remember that he has played a lot as a centre-back before, but nevertheless it’s good to keep an eye on him.
By the sounds of it, Pulisic will be back from start after what can only be described as a very tough start to 2026. A minor discomfort turned into a full-blown problem but it seems he’s turning a corner, and if he does start, hopefully he can kickstart this season final with a goal.
For the away side, Nicolussi Caviglia arrived on loan from Fiorentina at the end of January and ever since his time at Venezia, he has been an interesting player. Milan have even probed the ground for him in the past, so his passing will have to be limited.
Then, of course, I would be silly not to mention Pellegrino here. He’s Parma’s top goalscorer and definitely a threat in the aerial duels. Gabbia and his colleagues will thus have to keep a very close eye on him in the box.
Prediction
Milan are the clear favourites, that much is true, and I expect this to be a fairly good game for the Rossoneri. Marco Landucci is back in the dugout, aka Mr 100%, and the Rossoneri showed what they can do against the Gialloblu in the reverse fixture when they remain concentrated.
Milan 2-0 Parma
For me it’s between Fofana and RLC for the RCM birth.
The midfield needs their physicality and mobility. Ricci isn’t mobile enough for that role and is more suited to the centre. For me he’s Modric’s understudy with Jashari being Rabiot’s.
Whilst Fofana has done really well this season (he’s been crucial both defensively and in attack winning balls that directly lead to goals), RLC does have more technical ability and can score goals so I’d like to see how he’d go.
Agree with you. Although RLC seems to be in scoring form, maybe Allegri should continue to use him up front? Whoever gets the start is fine with me, as long as Milan take all 3 pts.
They could switch to a 343 with RLC bombing through the middle of Leao and Pulisic.
That could work quite well.