AC Milan will be looking to follow up their midweek Champions League success by getting back to winning ways in Serie A as they welcome Spezia to San Siro on Saturday night.
Milan ran out 4-0 winners against Red Bull Salzburg to book a place in the UCL knockouts for the first time since 2013-14 and the must ride that momentum to correct their league form after the 2-1 defeat away at Torino last Sunday.
With European football put to one side until the new year, the objective is to finish strong between now and the World Cup break to up the pressure on Napoli and Atalanta above in the battle for a 20th Scudetto.
Game date: Saturday, 5 November
Kick-off time: 20:45 (CET)
Venue: San Siro
Referee: Fabbri (VAR: Banti)
Team news
Head coach Stefano Pioli still has the same injury problems to contend with as Zlatan Ibrahimovic, Alexis Saelemaekers, Mike Maignan, Alessandro Florenzi and Davide Calabria will all remain sidelined until 2023.
It seems as though there will be some changes made from the team that triumphed against the Austrian champions on Wednesday but it will not be the wholesale rotation seen in the defeat in Turin.
According to what is being reported by multiple sources, Ciprian Tatarusanu will start in goal with Pierre Kalulu at right-back, Matteo Gabbia and Fikayo Tomori as the centre-backs and Theo Hernandez at left-back.
Rade Krunic and Ismael Bennacer are expected to team up in the double pivot, with Junior Messias and Rafael Leao on the right and left wing respectively.
Brahim Diaz should get the nod to start in the role of playmaker with some debate around whether Olivier Giroud will keep his place after amassing two goals and two assists in midweek against Red Bull Salzburg or whether Divock Origi will start.
Probable Milan XI (4-2-3-1): Tatarusanu; Kalulu, Gabbia, Tomori, Theo Hernandez; Krunic, Bennacer; Messias, Diaz, Leao; Origi.
The opponents
Spezia ended up avoiding relegation back to Serie B by a six-point margin in the last campaign, and that seemed to spark them into making some changes, starting with Luca Gotti coming in to replace Thiago Motta as head coach with the latter going to Bologna.
A number of signings were made such as attacking midfielder Kevin Agudelo from Genoa, goalkeeper Bartlomiej Dragowski from Fiorentina, left-back Arkadiuz Reca from Atalanta plus midfielders Mehdi Bourabia from Sassuolo and Albin Ekdal from Sampdoria.
Two players also arrived from Milan and could take on their parent club as centre-back Mattia Caldara and playmaker Daniel Maldini both went to Liguria on an initial loan deal.
In terms of results things have not gone quite how they wanted, with just two wins from their opening 12 games coming in round one (1-0 vs. Empoli) and round seven (2-1 vs. Sampdoria. They are yet to pick up a point or score a goal away from home.
In terms of team news, Simone Bastoni and Viktor Kovalenko are not expected to return for Gotti until January however Emil Holm should be back for the game having picked up a knock. Dimitris Nikolaou was sent off in the 2-1 defeat to Fiorentina in the last round of action, so must serve a suspension. Gyasi has sustained an injury late on and will also miss out.
Probable Spezia XI (3-5-2): Dragowski; Ampadu, Kiwior, Hristov; Holm, Bourabia, Ekdal, Agudelo, Rega; Strelec, Nzola.
Head to head
Milan have faced Spezia 11 times in their history and have actually got an even record, having won five and lost five with one draw.
The first meeting dates back to the old ‘Prima Divisione’ in 1921 when the Rossoneri triumphed 2-1, while in more recent times there was a Coppa Italia last 16 meeting in January 2014 that resulted in a 3-1 home win for Milan.
Since Spezia became Serie A regulars, Milan have struggled to beat them consistently. A 3-0 home win in 2020-21 was followed by a 2-0 loss in Ligue, while last season Pioli’s men won 2-1 away and lost 2-1 at home.
That defeat is still shrouded in controversy though. Milan thought they had won it when Junior Messias fired into the top corner but the referee whistled for a foul and had not played advantage, and then the final dagger came in the final few seconds when Emmanuel Gyasi finished a counter-attack to win it for the away side.
Match facts…
➤ Spezia have won two of their four Serie A meetings against AC Milan (L2), and could become the second side against which the Liguri win three games in the competition after Sampdoria.
➤ Spezia are one of the two sides to have beaten AC Milan away from home in Serie A in 2022 (2-1 at the Meazza in February), followed by Napoli’s victory earlier this season.
➤ After the 1-2 defeat against Torino, AC Milan could lose two Serie A matches in a row for the first time since November 2021, when they did so against Fiorentina and Sassuolo.
➤ In 2022, AC Milan have kept nine Serie A clean sheets at home, the joint-most in the competition, alongside Fiorentina. Indeed, only Liverpool and Real Sociedad (both 10) have had more in the big five European Leagues during that time.
➤ Spezia have lost without scoring in each of their first six Serie A away games this season, only four sides in the history of the competition have lost seven away matches in a row without finding the net (Napoli in 1939, Bari in 1950, Catania in 1955 and 1984 and Livorno in 2014).
➤ Spezia have failed to score in 50% of their Serie A games this season (6/12), the joint-highest percentage (level with Sampdoria), in the big five European Leagues only Cádiz, Bournemouth, Nottingham Forest and Wolves (seven each) have failed to score in more matches so far.
➤ Spezia have trailed for the most minutes in Serie A away matches this season (315), whilst AC Milan have been leading for 298 minutes at home, only Juventus have led for longer (360).
➤ Spezia are the side against which AC Milan’s Rafael Leão has scored the most Serie A goals (3), including the first of his two braces in the competition (October 2020 at the Meazza). Indeed, he has scored five goals and assisted four in Serie A this season, with only Kvaratskhelia (11) and Milinkovic-Savic (10) involved in more goals so far than his nine.
➤ Junior Messias scored the first of his three Serie A braces against Spezia in December 2020 for Crotone – after his goal against Torino, the Brazilian could score in two consecutive top-flight appearances for the second time, doing so previously in March/April 2021 against Bologna and Napoli.
➤ Mbala Nzola has scored 50% of Spezia’s goals in Serie A this season (5/10), each of them coming at home; he could find the net in two Serie A appearances in a row for the first time since January 2021 against Napoli and Sampdoria.
Ones to watch
As mentioned above, Rafael Leão seems to like playing against Spezia given they are the team against whom he has scored the most Serie A goals (3), while he has 15 goal contributions in 17 games across all competitions this season making him the main threat without a doubt.
Brahim Diaz had an excellent October in which he scored against Juventus and netted a brace against Monza – all at San Siro – while at the other end the Rossoneri have only let in one goal all season while Simon Kjaer has been out on the field.
M’Bala Nzola is without a doubt Spezia’s main man at the moment as the striker has five goals to his name already in the current Serie A season and will be looking to add to his tally. The only other scorers so far this season for the Ligurians are Simone Bastoni (two goals but out injured) and Emil Holm (one goal and an injury doubt).
There are two players that Milan have been linked with since the summer in centre-back Jakub Kiwior and full-back Kelvin Amian, with reports suggesting that first refusal was secured as part of the Mattia Caldara deal.
Prediction
Spezia have been nothing short of abysmal away from home this season and while previous Milan sides might have aroused some anxiety regarding the possibility of ending their bad run, we feel confident that they will get the job done comfortably.
AC Milan 2-0 Spezia
