AC Milan will play their penultimate away game of the 2025-26 Serie A season on Sunday afternoon when they travel to face Sassuolo.
Milan have won only two of their last six matches and have not scored in three of their last four in the league, and yet the equation is clear: with six more points from the 12 remaining, a Champions League spot will be secured.
The hope is that the Rossoneri can get over the line before the final couple of games, and it can actually be sealed this weekend. However, Massimiliano Allegri said in his press conference that Sassuolo cannot be underestimated, paying close attention to their ability to pounce at the right moments.
Game date: Sunday, May 3
Kick-off time: 15:00 (CEST)
Venue: Mapei Stadium
Referee: Fabio Maresca (VAR: Mazzoleni)
Team news
Milan come into this game in a bit of a strange position. As mentioned, they are a couple of wins (perhaps even less) from achieving their main objective for the season, and yet it feels like they will fall over the finish line rather than surge through it, if indeed they do it.
The team are struggling for goals and there is a general agreement that the attacking play has been non-existent for about two months. The 0-0 draw against Juventus on Sunday was a very drab spectacle and a bad advert for Italian football.
Milan have scored 16 goals since the midway point of the season, the 12th-most of any team in Serie A. They have failed to score in 4 of their last 6 games. Rafael Leao, Christian Pulisic, Christopher Nkunku, Santiago Gimenez and Niclas Füllkrug have gone a combined 2,787 minutes without scoring.
The bonus podcast we put out on Friday was all about Milan’s search for a striker that will finally guarantee some goals, but in the meantime Allegri has to make the most of what he has.
The big headline from the past week with regards to selection is the injury sustained by Luka Modric. He suffered a fractured cheekbone during the Juve draw that needed surgery and will keep him out until the end of the season.
So, the door has opened for Ardon Jashari or Samuele Ricci to take the keys to the regista role, even if temporarily. At present, it seems the Swiss will get the nod over the Italian, but there could be late surprises. Speaking of which, changes are possible in other areas too.
After yet another clean sheet, Allegri will not change the back four, which is only a good thing after last season’s repeated changes. So, Mike Maignan, Fikayo Tomori, Matteo Gabbia and Strahinja Pavlovic will line up as the back four.
In midfield, Jashari comes into the midfield in the place of the injured Luka Modric, whilst Pervis Estupinan replaces Davide Bartesaghi, who struggled through last weekend’s opening half with Juventus. Barring those two, it is unchanged. Alexis Saelemaekers on the right with Youssouf Fofana and Adrien Rabiot making up the midfield three.
Up front, Allegri is expected to stop persisting with Christian Pulisic and Rafael Leao together. It just has not worked. It seems that he prefers Christopher Nkunku to the American, with the Portuguese keeping his spot.
Predicted Milan XI (3-5-2): Maignan; Tomori, Gabbia, Pavlovic; Saelemaekers, Fofana, Jashari, Rabiot, Estupinan; Leao, Nkunku.
Predicted bench: Terracciano, Pittarella, De Winter, Odogu, Bartesaghi, Athekame, Ricci, Loftus-Cheek, Pulisic, Gimenez, Füllkrug.
Injuries & suspensions: Modric.
The opponents
Before the meeting at San Siro earlier in the season, we recapped all of the summer business that Sassuolo did ahead of their return to Serie A in our pre-match preview.
Having won Serie B in 2024-25, the mission for the Neroverdi was very simple: to stay in the top flight and to do is comfortably if possible. They have managed to achieve that aim and more, given they currently sit inside the top half.
Under the stewardship of Fabio Grosso, Sassuolo have won 13 of their 34 league games so far, with seven draws and 14 defeats. That has them on 46 points, and if they end the campaign well they can realistically finish as high as eighth.
Their last six games paints a fairly accurate picture: a 1-0 loss to Bologna was followed by a 1-1 draw way at Juventus, a 2-1 win at home to Cagliari, a 2-1 loss at Genoa, a 2-1 win over Como and a 0-0 draw with Fiorentina.
In essence, thanks to a core of players that have been very impressive and are primed for moves away, they have been able to regularly beat the teams that the should an even spring a few surprises. That could well be bad news for Milan, as they are playing a team with nothing to lose.
In terms of team news, the positive note for Grosso – who has been linked with the Fiorentina job recently – is that Domenico Berardi returns from a two-match ban and he loves facing Milan. More on that to come.
The doubts seem to be about whether Arijanet Muric will get the gloves back from Stefano Turati, but reports suggest he will not. Meanwhile, Filippo Romagna, Edoardo Pieragnolo and Fali Cande are all ruled out for the rest of the season, and Darryl Bakola is to be evaluated.
After last weekend’s clean sheet, Grosso will keep the back five unchanged. So, Turati will start in goal, with Walukiewicz and Garcia on the flanks. Centrally, former Milan targets Muharemovic and Idzes will start together again.
Like in defence, there are no changes in midfield, with Matic, Kone and Thorstvedt expected to line up again.
However, in attack, there will be one swap. Lauriente and Pinamonti retain their places, whilst Milan’s biggest enemy, Domenico Berardi, comes back into the starting XI. As a reminder, he is the top scorer when the sides meet with 11 goals.
Predicted Sassuolo XI (4-3-3): Turati; Walukiewicz, Muharemovic, Ides, Garcia; Thorstvedt, Matic, Kone; Berardi, Pinamont, Lauriente.
Predicted bench: Muric, Satalino, Zacchi, Doig, Romagna, Coulibaly, Pedro Felipe, Lipani, Vranckx, Iannoni, Volpato, Fadera, Nzola, Moro.
Injuries & suspensions: Boloca, Candè, Pieragnolo, Bakola.
Head to head
AC Milan and Sassuolo have not met each other too many times given the latter’s more recent rise. In the 25 times they have faced each other, the Rossoneri have win 14 times, but the Neroverdi have managed seven wins.
Last season was the last meeting between these sides as Milan prevailed 6-1 at San Siro in the Coppa Italia. The last league contest was in April 2024, a 3-3 draw in which Lauriente bagged a brace with Pinamonti scoring the other for the hosts, while Leao, Jovic and Okafor scored for Milan.
In the game earlier that season at San Siro, the Diavolo came out on top 1-0. Pulisic got the only goal just before the hour mark from an Ismael Bennacer assist.
Key facts and stats
➤ US Sassuolo Calcio have remained unbeaten in six of their last eight Serie A matches against AC Milan (W3 D3 L2), after suffering seven defeats in the previous nine (D2); in detail, the two teams have drawn their two most recent encounters, scoring 10 goals in total, an average of five per match.
➤ Milan are unbeaten in their last eight Serie A away games against Sassuolo (W6 D2); their last defeat at the MAPEl Stadium in the top-flight was on 6 March 2016, a 2-0 loss with goals from Alfred Duncan and Nicola Sansone.
➤ Sassuolo have collected 23 points in their last 13 Serie A matches (W7 D2 L4); since MD22, only four teams have earned more points in the competition: Como (24), Juventus (25), Napoli (26) and Inter (30).
➤ Sassuolo have won five of their last seven Serie A home matches (L2), as many as they had in their previous 19 (D5 L9) under four different managers.
➤ After 2-1 home wins against both Cagliari and Como, they could record three consecutive victories at the MAPEl Stadium for the first time in the competition since February-April 2022, under Alessio Dionisi.
➤ Milan have failed to score in five of their last nine Serie A matches – including their last game
against Juventus – averaging 0.78 goals per game in this period. This is exactly half the average goals per game they registered in their previous 25 Serie A matches this season (1.64, and only one game without scoring in that run).
➤ Milan have kept a clean sheet in each of their last two Serie A matches (against Hellas Verona and Juventus) and could record three consecutive clean sheets for the second time this season, after last September. Overall, the last time the Rossoneri had more than 15 clean sheets at this stage of a Serie A season was in 2011/12 (17 and a second-place finish).
➤ Milan have made the fewest substitutions on average in Serie A this season (4.1 per match, 139
in total), at least 10 fewer than any other side in the competition (Parma are next with 149).
➤ Milan are averaging 13.3 shots per game in Serie A this season, their second-lowest average in a single top-flight campaign across the last 20 seasons (only 2014/15 was lower, 11.8 shots per match, when they finished 10th).
➤ Milan are the side against whom Domenico Berardi has scored the most goals in Serie A: 11 in 19 meetings, including the one in which he set his personal record for goals in a single top-flight match (four, in January 2014). Only five players have scored more goals against the Rossoneri in the competition than the Sassuolo forward: Stefano Nyers, Carlo Reguzzoni, Antonio Di Natale (all on 12), Enrico Chiesa (14) and Silvio Piola (22).
➤ Matteo Gabbia has been available for AC Milan in their last two Serie A matches (1-0 against Verona
and 0-0 against Juventus); with the defender on the pitch, the Rossoneri have lost just 4% of their Serie A games this season (one of 26 total – W15 D10), averaging 2.1 points per match, while without him, their loss percentage rises to 50% (four of eight, W4) and their points per game average drops to 1.5.
Ones to watch
For the hosts, it is obvious. However, a close eye must be kept on Domenico Berardi. He returns from suspension for this game and he is the top scorer in the fixture’s history with 11. History proves he can punish the Rossoneri and Allegri knows this only too well.
Tarek Muharemovic could also be massively influential. The central defender was previously targeted by Milan, but he now seems to be heading to Inter. A strong defender, he can help punish an already struggling attack.
For the Rossoneri, the first player of importance is Christopher Nkunku. Brought in by Allegri for this game, he reportedly only has a few more chances to impress. If he doesn’t here, who knows how much longer he will see the red and black shirt.
Finally, Ardon Jashari is a tap in selection for a one to watch. The Swiss midfielder has yet to fully prove himself for the Diavolo. Stepping in for Luka Modric, he has big boots to fill and he will need to show his best from the off.
Prediction
Sassuolo are no pushovers, so this will be a tough game for Milan. However, Allegri will be keen for their scoring issues to be put to bed. It may just be a case of getting the job done, especially with a Champions League spot in touching distance…
Sassuolo 0-1 AC Milan
Yeah, take the guy out who runs miles for you and leave the guy in who shrugs and folds when he loses the ball…