After losing the first leg against Inter in the Champions League, AC Milan will have to shift focus back to the league and the top-four race. On Saturday evening, they will take on Spezia away from home.
It was indeed a disappointing Wednesday evening for the Rossoneri as they never really stood a chance against their city rivals. They can count themselves lucky that it’s only 2-0 heading into the second leg, but it’s still a mountain to climb.
Stefano Pioli spoke to Milan TV before the game and admitted that the next four days are season defining, while he also gave an update on the injury situation.
Game date: Saturday, May 13
Kick-off time: 18:00 (CEST)
Venue: Alberto Picco
Referee: Doveri (VAR: Marini)
Team news
In addition to losing the game badly, Milan were also dealt another blow against Inter as Ismael Bennacer injured his knee. The midfielder will be out for the rest of the season and that is obviously a huge blow for the team.
Rafael Leao is working hard to recover from his injury but he will not be available, given that Milan won’t risk anything ahead of the second leg against Inter. Malick Thiaw will be suspended tomorrow, and it was also confirmed that Junior Messias and Rade Krunic have muscle problems so will miss out.
Pioli seems to have made his choices ahead of the game in Liguria, starting with Mike Maignan in goal, Simon Kjaer and Fikayo Tomori as the centre-backs and Theo Hernandez on the left. Davide Calabria has the edge over Pierre Kalulu at right-back.
In the midfield – with Bennacer and Krunic out due to injury – Sandro Tonali will be forced to work overtime, with Tommaso Pobega at his side in the double pivot.
In attack, Alexis Saelemaekers, Ante Rebic and Divock Origi are all guaranteed a starting spot, while Charles De Ketelaere is currently tipped to be the starting attacking midfield.
However, it is also possible that Pioli could play Aster Vranckx in the midfield alongside Tonali and move Pobega into the role of attacking midfielder.
Probable Milan XI (4-2-3-1): Maignan; Calabria, Kjaer, Kalulu, Theo; Vranckx, Pobega; Saelemaekers, De Ketelaere, Origi; Rebic.
The opponents
It’s been a very tough season for Spezia and they could be relegated at the end of it. Leonardo Semplici took over the side back in February and they went three games unbeaten, with one win (away at Inter).
However, since then, they haven’t won a single game and have drawn three out of eight games. Their last five games have all ended in losses except one, which says a lot about the difficult period that the team is going through.
Looking at their squad, it’s not exactly a surprise that they are fighting at the bottom of the standings. Still, one probably would expect them to do better with the likes of Dragowski, Ekdal, Nzola and Gyasi in the team.
Tomorrow’s game will thus be extremely important as a win would get them to where Hellas Verona are, i.e. 30 points. Milan loanee Daniel Maldini plays for Spezia but is currently injured and will thus miss the game (he scored in the reverse fixture).
Probable Spezia XI (4-3-3): Dragowski; Amian, Ampadu, Wisniewski, Nikolaou; Esposito, Ekdal, Bourabia; Verde, Nzola, Gyasi.
Head to head
After three draws in the last five league games, Milan will be hoping for a different story against Spezia on Saturday. In fact, this fixture has never ended in a draw, with the Rossoneri winning four of the six games.
Last time out, Milan manage to prevail 2-1 after Olivier Giroud scored the winner in the 89th minute. Before that, Theo Hernandez had opened the scoring but his goal was cancelled out by Milan loanee Daniel Maldini, of all people.
And last time out away at Spezia, Milan also won 2-1 as Maldini scored his first goal for the Rossoneri. Brahim Diaz was the game-winner in that one, though.
Match facts…
➤ Spezia and AC Milan have never drawn in any of their six meetings in all competitions: four wins for the Rossoneri (three in Serie A, including the first leg last November, and one in Coppa Italia) and two for Spezia (both in the top flight).
➤ Spezia haven’t won any of their last eight league games (D3 L5) and could register their longest ever streak without a win in Serie A (eight also between November 2020 and January 2021).
➤ Spezia have failed to score in 10 of their 19 matches played in 2023 – as many as in all 34 played in 2022 in Serie A. Since they were promoted to the top flight (2020/21), only Sampdoria have recorded more games (40) without scoring than the Ligurians (34).
➤ Just 46% of Milan’s Serie A points this season have come in 2023 (28/61), the lowest percentage in the division.
➤ AC Milan have gained 23 points in the second part of this Serie A season: six wins and five draws (L4); the last time the Rossoneri had gained fewer points in the first 15 games of the second half of the season in Serie A was in 2016/17 (20).
➤ AC Milan are unbeaten in their last 17 Serie A away matches against opponents who were in the bottom three of the standing at the start of the matchday (W11 D6); their last such defeat was in December 2017, against Verona (3-0).
➤ AC Milan have drawn their last two Serie A away matches, both 1-1; the last time the Rossoneri finished 1-1 three games in a row in Serie A was in March 1988 (against Fiorentina, Ascoli and Torino). Overall, AC Milan could draw three away games in a row in the top-flight for the first time since December 2018.
➤ Spezia’s M’Bala Nzola hasn’t scored in his last three league matches; the striker has never failed to score for four matches in a row in Serie A 2022/23 (three matches also between August and September)
➤ With Rafael Leão as a starter, AC Milan have gained an average of 2.2 points per match in Serie A this season, recording 64% of wins; however, without the Portuguese starting, the Rossoneri’s points average drops to 0.8, with only an 11% win rate.
➤ Theo Hernández has scored four goals in Serie A this season; since joining AC Milan (2019/20), the Frenchman is the defender who has scored the most goals from ball carries in the top-flight (7).
Ones to watch
Tommaso Pobega will have a point to prove as he could replace Ismael Bennacer permanently for the remainder of the season. He’s expected to start in the tandem tomorrow, though, but nevertheless it’s a good chance for him.
Divock Origi did well as he came off the bench against Inter and Pioli will be hoping that he can find the groove against Spezia. Without Leao, Milan really need that type of unpredictability and skill on the left flank.
As for Spezia, Bartłomiej Drągowski has always been a very good goalkeeper in the league and he will be an important player for his side tomorrow. As said, he’s very capable and he could cause issues for Milan.
Furthermore, M’Bala Nzola has been the standout player for Spezia this season and he’s due a goal. Pierre Kalulu and Fikayo Tomori will have to be on their toes and not allow him too much time on the ball, because he’s skilful.
Prediction
It would be shocking if Milan don’t win this game. Spezia are in awful form and, as we say that, it would be a typical Rossoneri loss. Hopefully, they will be eager to prove themselves after the nightmare against Inter.
Spezia 1-2 AC Milan
All in on top 4 Serie A please. Or should we rest ALL key players and try for a comeback on Tuesday? Yeah squad is bad and so thin but still Pioli was going all in on the Champions League trying to win it with this squad lol. You gotta be honest and realistic when looking at your resources and lining them up with your targets. This coach was trying to win a war with a hunting rifle. It is the management’s fault to have not reinforced probably. But it is Pioli’s fault for choosing the wrong target with such a thin squad. Now fate is beyond our reach on both fronts.
I’ll feel very good if Pobega plays. Milan’s midfield seems to go stale quickly ever since Kessie left. Pobega takes advantage of opponents not being familiar with him.
Another draw or even shock loss. We know how this ends every time we have that attack