AC Milan will be hoping to take a further step forward in the battle for a top four spot as they host Empoli at San Siro on Friday night.
Milan will come into the game full of confidence having beaten the runaway league leaders Napoli 4-0 on Sunday, but Empoli ended their run of eight games without a win as they defeated Lecce to ease any fears of a slide towards the bottom three.
Stefano Pioli stressed the importance of putting the win in Naples to once side and approaching each game as if it were a knockout match in his press conference, with three points a necessity again to start the weekend the right way.
Game date: Friday, April 7th
Kick-off time: 21:00 (CEST)
Venue: San Siro
Referee: Matteo Marcenaro (VAR: Valeri)
Team news
As mentioned, Milan put in what was probably their best performance of the season on Sunday as they put four past Napoli having reverted to the old 4-2-3-1 system. It seemed to bring the best out of Rafael Leao, who scored twice, and Brahim Diaz who got a goal and an assist.
In terms of injury news, Pierre Kalulu and Zlatan Ibrahimovic will definitely miss the game against Empoli as they continued their work separately during Thursday’s training.
Instead, Brahim Diaz resumed group training after Wednesday’s individual session. The Spaniard is not injured, but the Rossoneri staff are managing him after he came off against Napoli with some discomfort in his thigh, so he won’t start.
Junior Messias has returned to training with the rest of the squad and will be available, but Alexis Saelemaekers did well off the bench at the weekend and seems set to start.
According to Di Marzio, Pioli should largely stick with the starting line-up that won against Napoli and he will stick with the 4-2-3-1 formation that looked an awful lot more threatening than the three-man defence had.
Mike Maignan is obviously immovable between the posts while the four man defence should consist of Davide Calabria on the right side and Theo Hernandez on the left with the centre-back pairing formed by Simon Kjaer and Fikayo Tomori.
In the midfield Ismael Bennacer and Sandro Tonali should keep their spot and Rade Krunic should also get the nod, so we will see what roles each occupy after the Algerian was the playmaker on Sunday.
There should be a small change instead in the attacking department where Saelemaekers seems to be the favourite over Brahim Diaz, with Rafael Leao and Olivier Giroud also tipped to start.
Update: Sky are now reporting that Tommaso Pobega was tried as the playmaker over Rade Krunic, while Rafael Leao has not been feeling 100% so might be rested for Ante Rebic.
Probable Milan XI (4-2-3-1): Maignan; Calabria, Thiaw, Tomori, Theo Hernandez; Tonali, Bennacer; Saelemaekers, Pobega (Krunic), Leao (Rebic); Giroud.
The opponents
Despite the fact that it has been an up and down season for Empoli under Paolo Zanetti, the main thing is that they are sat in the relatively lofty position of 14th and are 12 points above the relegation zone.
The summer saw the Azzurri lose a couple of key performers from the previous campaign in Kristjan Asllani and Mattia Viti, but the likes of Razvan Marin, Nicholas Cambiaghi, Matt Destro, Marko Place and Martin Satriano arrived.
The Tuscan side have won 7 of their 28 league games this season, drawing 10 and losing 11. Scoring goals has been a problem as they have netted 25 times this season (only five teams have scored less) but have only let in 36, the third-best defensive record of any side in the bottom half.
Empoli began the season with one win in their opening nine games but by the midway point of the season they had amassed six wins, including one away against Inter.
The victory against the Nerazzurri at San Siro would be followed by an eight-game winless run, and with the win over Lecce at the weekend they ended a streak of four consecutive defeats.
Zanetti has almost a full squad to choose from but he will be without defender Lorenzo Tonelli who is suspended after being sent off from the substitutes’ bench during the victory against Empoli.
Nonetheless, Guglielmo Vicario is expected to return between the posts having spent time out due to concussion, with a 4-3-1-2 formation expected to be what the Empoli boss goes with.
Probable Empoli XI (4-3-1-2): Vicario; Ebuehi, Ismajli, Luperto, Parisi; Bandinelli, Marin, Akpa Akpro; Baldanzi; Piccoli, Caputo
Head to head
Milan have played 33 games against Empoli in their history, with 19 wins, 10 draws and just 4 defeats the record, and a positive goal difference of 33 across those meetings.
The first ever matches between the sides came back in 1986 in a two-legged Coppa Italia last 16 clash, with Milan actually losing 2-1 on aggregate. The first Serie A meetings came the following season, with the Rossoneri winning 3-0 away and 1-0 at home.
The most recent game came in October of last year and Milan emerged 3-1 victors, but that only tells half the story. Ante Rebic opened the scoring but a late Bajrami free-kick looked to have snatched a draw for the hosts, yet Fode Ballo-Tore netted in added time and Rafael Leao sealed it not long after.
The fixture at San Siro last season was far less dramatic, with Milan running out 1-0 winners thanks to a solitary goal from Pierre Kalulu, a lovely first-time finish from outside the box.
⏪ #MilanEmpoli throwback…
🎯 @Kalulujr_ was on the money with his shot from outside the box 😍pic.twitter.com/r2iSpUqLYL
— SempreMilan 🏆 (@SempreMilanCom) April 6, 2023
Match facts…
➤ Milan have won their last four Serie A meetings against Empoli, while they have never won five in a row against them in the competition (also four between 2003 and 2006 under Carlo Ancelotti).
➤ Empoli’s last Serie A clean sheet against AC Milan was back in October 2007, when they won 1-0 at the Meazza thanks to a Luca Saudati goal – since then, AC Milan have scored 27 goals in 12 such meetings (2.3 per game on average).
➤ Empoli have won three of their 29 Serie A meetings against AC Milan, each of them at San Siro – the last coming back in April 2017.
➤ Milan have lost just 9% of their Serie A matches played on a Friday (2/23) – among sides with 3+ games played on this day in the competition, they have the lowest loss percentage.
➤ After their 1-0 win against Lecce last time out, Empoli could win two Serie A games in a row for the second time this season; on the first occasion, the second match was against the other Milan side (Inter), while in both matches they kept a clean sheet.
➤ Empoli have won just one of their eight Serie A matches played on Friday (2-0 v Cremonese last November), playing out one draw and six defeats, including their most recent one against Atalanta in March.
➤ Milan have had the most direct attacks of any side in Serie A this season (74), whilst Empoli have had only 29, the second-fewest, ahead of Sampdoria.
➤ In the reverse fixture against Empoli, Rafael Leão both scored and assisted a goal; the Portuguese forward (currently 10) could equal his best tally of goals in a single Serie A season (11 goals for AC Milan last term).
➤ This match will see the three players to have covered the most distance via progressive carries (moving 5+ metres upfield with the ball) in Serie A this season: Fabiano Parisi (3035), Theo
Hernández (2741) and Rafael Leão (2699).
➤ Thanks to his goal against Lecce last time out, Francesco Caputo has become the fifth-highest Empoli scorer in Serie A with 18 goals. With one more strike, he will equal Ighli Vannucchi (19) as the fourth-highest for the club in the Italian top-flight.
Ones to watch
The hope is that – after his performance against Napoli – Rafael Leao has put his goal drought firmly behind him and can be a driving force for Milan’s attack. It will also be intriguing to see how the midfield trio operate, given Ismael Bennacer somewhat surprisingly played as the most advanced in Campania.
There will of course be a burning desire to keep another clean sheet and for players like Davide Calabria and Simon Kjaer – who are leaders of the side – to gain even more confidence.
The star of the season for Empoli has been the 20-year-old playmaker Tommaso Baldanzi who has been repeatedly linked with Milan recently. He has four goals for the campaign thus far.
Only Nicolo Cambiaghi has matched his goal contribution tally with three goals and one assist, while Fabiano Parisi and the veteran Francesco Caputo are among six players to have scored twice.
Tyronne Ebuehi will be tasked with stopping Leao’s advances and Sebastiano Luperto should be the one who has to stop Olivier Giroud. Bandinelli, Marin and Akpa Akpro will have to try and do better than Napoli’s midfield three did on Sunday.
Prediction
If Milan’s ambitions of a top four finish are to be achieved, this simply has to be a win. To expect a rout might be too much against a solid and compact side who caused problems for Inter, but three points are a must.
AC Milan 2-0 Empoli
