AC Milan simply must return to winning ways if they are to stand a chance of sneaking into the Champions League places when they host Sampdoria at San Siro on Saturday night.
The recent dropped points against Empoli, Salernitana, Cremonese and Spezia have left Milan on the outside looking in when it comes to the top four battle, and anything but three points against an already-relegated Sampdoria could see things boil over with the fan base frustrated.
Stefano Pioli said in his pre-match press conference that the team have a duty to win their remaining three games and try finish in the top four, but admitted assessments must be made when the season is done.
Game date: Saturday, May 20
Kick-off time: 20:45 (CEST)
Venue: San Siro
Referee: Fourneau (VAR: Di Martino)
Team news
In addition to the known injury absences of Zlatan Ibrahimovic and Ismael Bennacer, it must be mentioned that the team have looked in quite poor condition physically for some weeks now.
Inter have played one game more than the Rossoneri in 2023 so far and yet appeared in far better shape over the two legs, which means that playing a heavily rotated line-up in the league games before or between European commitments has arguably not worked.
Now, however, Pioli has only one competition to focus on and one game per week between now and the end of the campaign, which means there are no excuses or alibis in terms of how the squad look.
According to the latest from MilanNews, Pioli will indeed rely on his starters for the game against Sampdoria at San Siro tomorrow night, which of course begins with Mike Maignan in goal.
Davide Calabria and Theo Hernandez will be the full-backs with Malick Thiaw confirmed in central defence alongside one of either Fikayo Tomori or Simon Kjaer, meaning the Englishman could get a rest.
Rade Krunic and Sandro Tonali will be in the midfield double pivot with Alexis Saelemaekers on the right instead of Junior Messias, Brahim Diaz as the playmaker and Rafael Leao on the left behind the centre-forward Olivier Giroud.
It is worth noting that Sky have Tomori and Kjaer down as the centre-back pairing, but the rest of the team the same.
Probable Milan XI (4-2-3-1): Maignan; Calabria, Thiaw, Kjaer, Theo; Tonali, Krunic; Saelemaekers, Diaz, Leao; Giroud.
The opponents
It has not been a good season for Sampdoria at all, and it has ultimately culminated in their relegation back to Serie B after 10 years in the top flight. They have just 18 points this season, with 3 wins, 9 draws and 23 defeats in 35 games.
The Blucerchiati have been treading water for some time in the league and their summer window did not exactly inject much optimism with a 34-year-old Francesco Caputo, a 17-year-old Marco Delle Monache and a 25-year-old Abdelhamid Sabiri being the only players they paid a fee for.
The appointment of Dejan Stankovic to replace Marco Giampaolo early in the season (where have we heard that before?) did not bring the turnaround in results hoped for, and their relegation was confirmed after the 2-0 loss to Sampdoria with Hellas Verona and Spezia winning that weekend.
They have struggled to score with just 21 goals netted and they have leaked plenty at the other end having let in 62. They have been in the bottom three since the third round of the season, and have been bottom for eight games now.
Their only victories came against Cremonese, Sassuolo and Hellas Verona, and a fitting symbol of their season was perhaps on Monday night when they led against Empoli until the 93rd minute when ex-Samp man Piccoli equalised.
In terms of selection news and injuries for Stankovic to contend with, Ignacio Pussetto will be out as he continues to recover from knee surgery and Andrea Conti has a tendon problem that should see him sidelined against his old club.
Goalkeeper Emil Audero will not be there due to a shoulder problem and midfielder Gerard Yepes has been out for over a month so should not make it. Sabiri is also out, but Mehdi Leris should return.
Stankovic has been mostly going with a three-man defence and a playmaker behind two strikers, so it is expected that Gunter, Nuytinck and Amione will have Zanoli and Augello as wing-backs either side, with Winks and Rincon in midfield then Djuricic behind the now veteran duo of Gabbiadini and Quagliarella.
Probable Sampdoria XI (3-4-1-2): Ravaglia; Gunter, Nuytinck, Amione; Zanoli, Winks, Rincon, Augello; Djuricic; Gabbiadini, Quagliarella.
Head to head
There are only eight teams that Milan have played more in their history across all competitions than Sampdoria. They have played the Genovese team 149 times, winning 81 of them with 33 draws and 35 defeats at a 54.4% win rate.
The first time that they met was back in the 1946-47 Serie A season and it was Samp who came out on top with a 2-1 victory at home, but in the reverse fixture Milan won 1-0.
The Rossoneri have no lost at home against Sampdoria in the league since the 2016-17 season but they have drawn in two of their last three Serie A matches at San Siro against them.
Earlier in the season Pioli’s men ran out 2-1 winners as Olivier Giroud’s penalty in the 67th minute decided the tie after Djuricic had cancelled out an opener from Junior Messias.
In this fixture last season Milan won 1-0 at home as Mike Maignan’s long ball set up Rafael Leao for the only goal on February 13.
Match facts…
➤ Milan have won their last three games against Sampdoria in Serie A. The Rossoneri could register more consecutive league wins against the Blucerchiati for the first time since between 1999 and 2005 (five).
➤ Milan haven’t won any of their last three matches against sides that started the MD in the bottom three of Serie A (D2 L1), after eight wins in the previous nine such matches (D1).
➤ After a streak of three league wins in a row in February 2023, Milan have won just three of their last 11 Serie A matches (D5 L3); from the beginning of March, the Rossoneri would occupy the 12th position in the Serie A standings (14 points, level with Salernitana).
➤ Sampdoria have gained 18 points so far in Serie A this season and for the first time in their history they will end a Serie A season with fewer than 28 points (considering three points for a win).
➤ Sampdoria have picked up the fewest points away from home in Serie A this season (nine in 17 matches); they have also conceded the joint-most goals on the road in the current league season (36, alongside Sassuolo).
➤ Milan have scored the most goals in the first 30 minutes of matches in Serie A this season (18), including their last two goals (both against Lazio).
➤ Milan and Sampdoria are two of the three teams, alongside Empoli, that have conceded the most goals from crosses in Serie A this season (13 each).
➤ Milan have won 49% of their matches with Rafael Leao on the pitch in the current season in all competitions (22/45), scoring 1.5 goals on average – without him, the Rossoneri have lost each of the other four games, scoring 0.5 goals.
➤ Olivier Giroud hasn’t scored in his last six league games, his longest streak without a goal for him in Serie A. Seven of his eight goals in the current league season have been netted in home games (his only away goal in Serie A this season was against Sampdoria in September).
➤ Each of Fabio Quagliarella’s three goals against Milan in Serie A have been scored at San Siro. He hasn’t scored in his last 20 games in Serie A, his longest run without a goal in the competition.
Ones to watch
There was a lot of attention in the build-up to the second leg against Inter on Leao, but he did not seem 100% and was largely ineffective. Meanwhile, Giroud is on a scoring drought, so Milan need their attacking leaders to step up against a poor defensive side.
Brahim Diaz could only have three games to prove he is worth the over €20m needed for a permanent deal, while it will be interesting to see how a Kjaer-Thiaw pairing looks if they are indeed the ones chosen.
In an attack that has been devoid of confidence all season, Gabbiadini has led the way with six goals and two assists in his 32 games. Augello has chipped in from wing-back with seven goal contributions, five of which were assists.
Aside from that, Gunter will have to be at his best to stave off Leao’s runs with some help from Zanoli, and there could be an interesting midfield battle between Tonali and the Spurs loanee Winks.
Prediction
It is hard to predict anything with any confidence at the moment given just how bad Milan have been in the league and the possibility of a European hangover, but anything less than three points would likely see things start to boil over in terms of fan frustration.
AC Milan 2-0 Sampdoria
Giroud didn’t scored for a while, and we should be dangerous on both flank, and that should manage Giroud to score. Defence must be compact, because their next game is 8 days after Sampdoria. So Milan must win with Girouds goal.
1-1 draw. I can’t imagine this Milan scoring more than a goal in a match.
All of these teams are playing defensive against us. We are very predictable. We always attack from sides, there is no one in the middle since everybody else has gone deep. Look at where KDB plays for Man City. We don’t have any player in that position (I know we don’t have with that quality either).
I say we go to a more attacking formation. Put more attacking players in the staring 11.
Theo as LW
Leao as CF leaning Left
Giroud as ST
Saelemaekers RW
Diaz as CAM
What is the point of being this conservative with formation when we end up loosing games?
Can we beat the worst team in the league at San Siro? They’re already relegated but can the master tactician Pioli break down their defense? Exciting!
Last season we always found a way to win when our backs were against the wall. This season I’m wondering if we’ll beat an already relegated Sampdoria….
I wish Pioli would start CDK on the right wing…
1-2 Can’t see us scoring more than one and can’t see us keeping a clean sheet.