Derby day is upon us! After several weeks of build-up, AC Milan and Inter will finally battle it out underneath the San Siro lights.
A few weeks ago, Milan’s goal was to come into this game five points behind Inter. However, a few dropped points later and the gap in the standings has increased to ten points, meaning the game isn’t so much about the Rossoneri catching up anymore.
Instead, it’s a case of stopping the bleeding and potentially giving themselves a chance. As Massimiliano Allegri was keen to point out during the presser (again), Milan cannot afford to lose sight of their actual target, which is the Champions League.
Game date: Sunday, March 8
Kick-off time: 20:45 (CET)
Venue: San Siro
Referee: Daniele Doveri (VAR: Rosario Abisso)
Team news
Allegri is having to deal with three absences for the game, one of which is pretty significant as Matteo Gabbia has been ruled out. The centre-back recently underwent surgery for a hernia and obviously can’t play as a result.
The other absentees are Ruben Loftus-Cheek, who’s recovering from his jaw surgery, and Santiago Gimenez. Allegri had expected the Mexican striker to be back in training earlier this week, but as confirmed during the presser, the new goal is to start next week instead.
It definitely could have been a lot worse for the gaffer, with Davide Bartesaghi also in doubt for quite some time, but the left-back was back in training on Friday and his presence has been confirmed. With Gabbia out, having him as an option at centre-back is indeed crucial.
Moving on to the predicted eleven for the big game, the defence pretty much picks itself with Fikayo Tomori, Koni De Winter and Strahinja Pavlovic partnering up. Gabbia’s absence is heavy, but at least these three have performed well in recent weeks.
On the flanks, Alexis Saelemaekers is currently ahead of Zachary Athekame, while it seems Pervis Estupinan could get a surprise start. Allegri said that he would decide on the matter on gameday, seeing as Bartesaghi’s condition has to be assessed (if he can play from start).
In midfield, the likes of Youssouf Fofana, Adrien Rabiot and Luka Modric have pretty much cemented themselves as the trio. It was really only the right central-midfielder spot that was in doubt, but Fofana has impressed lately and could fit this game very well.
Up front, reports initially suggested that Allegri could decide to bench Christian Pulisic but that won’t be the case. The American will partner with Rafael Leao with the hopes of breaking his goal drought, while continuing his streak against Inter (every time he scores against them, he wins).
It remains to be seen what the final decision will be on the left flank, but either way, Milan cannot really complain about the strenght if their eleven. Especially since Inter are without Lautaro Martinez for this one, which we will come on to.
Predicted Milan XI (3-5-2): Maignan; Tomori, De Winter, Pavlovic; Saelemaekers, Fofana, Modric, Rabiot, Estupinan; Pulisic, Leao.
Predicted bench: Terracciano, Pittarella, Athekame, Odogu, Bartesaghi, Jashari, Ricci, Nkunku, Füllkrug.
Injuries & suspensions: Gabbia, Gimenez and Loftus-Cheek.
The opponents
Many raised their eyebrows when Inter decided to replace Simone Inzaghi, the manager who had done so well in the league for so many years, with a relative rookie in Cristian Chivu. Even more so as the Romanian had only coached youth football before, apart from a 13-game stint at Parma.
In those 13 games, however, he managed to steer the Gialloblu away from the relegation zone thanks to some decent rules. Nevertheless, while there were rightfully doubts about Chivu, it has to be said that he has done a good job with the team so far.
You could definitely argue that his inexperience shouldn’t matter with that much firepower in the squad, but we have to remember that Inzaghi was a very hands-on manager. He was constantly shouting on the sidelines, making himself heard and directing his players.
Chivu has stepped up to the plate on this front, as winning 14 of the last 15 games (the other game ended in a draw) speaks for itself really. It has also made it impossible for Milan to feel any sort of momentum in the Scudetto race, only falling further behind.
Just to remind ourselves a little bit of the summer business, Inter brought in the likes of Manuel Akanja, Ange-Yoan Bonny, Andy Diouf, Luis Henrique and Petar Sucic. Pio Esposito also returned from his loan spell at Spezia, but it’s clear that the Nerazzurri aimed to perfect an already solid foundation.
Solid foundation indeed, as Alessandro Bastoni (despite his simulations), Nicolo Barella, Hakan Calhanoglu, Federico Dimarco and Lautaro Martinez are still performing at a very high level. With these players in form, it’s hard to compete as the opponent.
The bad news (good for Milan) is that Lautaro Martinez is sidelined with a calf injury. As the team’s top scorer and captain, as well as someone who lives for the derby, it’s obviously a huge blow. Marcus Thuram also struggled with a fever today, but based on Chivu’s words, he will likely be available anyway.
Apart from that, though, Chivu has a full squad at his disposal with no other injuries or suspensions. There is currently just one battle that the manager will have to decide for the starting XI, per Gazzetta dello Sport, and that is the aforementioned Calhanoglu against Henrikh Mkhitaryan.
The former Milan man is behind in the race, as the 37-year-old has been in good form lately. If Thuram can’t make it, Bonny is also ready to take a starting spot.
Predicted Inter XI (3-5-2): Sommer; Bisseck, Akanji, Bastoni; Luis Henrique, Barella, Zielinski, Mkhitaryan, Dimarco; Thuram, Esposito.
Predicted bench: J. Martinez, Di Gennaro, De Vrij, Acerbi, Carlos Augusto, Sucic, Dumfries, Diouf, Calhanoglu, Darmian, Frattesi, Lavelli, Bonny.
Injuries & suspensions: Lautaro Martinez.
Head to head
Tomorrow’s Derby della Madonnina will be the 230th edition, with the current record being as follows: 85 wins for Inter, 75 wins for Milan and 69 draws. All things considered, a pretty even H2H even if the Nerazzurri are ten wins ahead.
After Inter’s dominance between the second half of 2022-23 and the entire 2023-24 season (six consecutive wins), the tide certainly shifted last season as Milan won three games and drew two. This was followed up by the win in the reverse fixture, which ended 0-1.
Christian Pulisic was the only goalscorer in that game as he made the most out of a rebound. It can be described as against the run of play, and Mike Maignan then also saved a penalty from Hakan Calhanoglu.
The most recent designated home game for Milan, meanwhile, was in the Coppa Italia semi-final and ended 1-1 after goals from Tammy Abraham and Calhanoglu.
Key facts and stats
➤ Following their 1-0 success in the first derby of the season on 23rd November, AC Milan could win both league meetings against Inter in Serie A for the first time since 2010/11, under Massimiliano Allegri.
➤ AC Milan are unbeaten in their last six derby matches against Internazionale in all competitions (W4 D2), after losing all six of the previous encounters. The Rossoneri have not recorded a longer unbeaten run against the Nerazzurri in official matches since November 2002 and April 2005 (ten in that period).
➤ Inter have failed to score in their last two Milan derbies in all competitions (a 0-3 defeat in the Coppa Italia and a 0-1 loss in Serie A). The last time the Nerazzurri went without scoring in more consecutive games against AC Milan was between October 2004 and April 2005 (four matches on that occasion, including a 0-3 forfeited loss in the Champions League quarter-final second leg).
➤ AC Milan have won just one of their last 11 home matches against Inter in all competitions (D5 L5): a 3-2 victory on 3 September 2022. The two most recent matches have ended in a draw, with the Derby della Madonnina only seeing three consecutive draws at AC Milan’s home ground on two previous occasions in official matches (between 1985 and 1986, and between 1934 and 1936).
➤ AC Milan and Inter will face each other with the Nerazzurri holding at least a 10-point advantage in the table for the 18th time in Serie A history. Inter have remained unbeaten in 15 of these 17 previous encounters (W12 D3); AC Milan’s only two wins were on 4th May 2008 (2-1) and 12th February 1939 (3-1).
➤ AC Milan have earned just one point from their last two home league matches (a draw against Como and a defeat against Parma); the Rossoneri could lose two consecutive home Serie A games for the first time since October-November 2023 (against Juventus and Udinese on that occasion).
➤ Inter have won their last nine Serie A away matches, keeping a clean sheet in the most recent six; the Nerazzurri could achieve 10 consecutive away wins in the competition for only the second time in their history, after 11 between October 2006 and March 2007 under Roberto Mancini. Furthermore, they have only once registered seven successive away clean sheets in Serie A, between October 2024 and January 2025 under Simone Inzaghi.
➤ Inter have scored the most goals from set-pieces (21 – including a league-high 15 from corners) in Serie A this season; meanwhile, AC Milan have conceded the highest percentage of goals from set-pieces (50%, 10 of 20 – with 25% from corners, another league-high percentage).
➤ After scoring the decisive goal in the 1-0 win in the reverse fixture on 23 November, Christian Pulisic could become the first AC Milan player to score in both Serie A matches against Inter in a single season since Kaká in 2003/04.
➤ Federico Dimarco has been involved in 12 goals in 10 Serie A matches in 2026 (4 goals, 8 assists), at least twice as many as any other player in the period (seven players are on six goal involvements). Dimarco could become only the fifth Inter player to be involved in a goal in seven consecutive Serie A appearances on record (since 2004/05), after Julio Cruz (x2), Zlatan Ibrahimovic, Romelu Lukaku and Lautaro Martínez.
Ones to watch
Koni De Winter has improved massively in the last few months and tomorrow’s game can definitely be described as a litmus test of sorts. With Matteo Gabbia out injured, the Belgian will have to play in the centre and in such a big game, that position comes with a lot of responsibility.
Another player to keep an eye on is Youssouf Fofana, who impressed against Cremonese with a perfect performance. His stamina will definitely come in handy for this one and perhaps he can be a bit sharper in the final third.
As for Inter, Yann Aurel Bisseck has proved to be rather strong in the duels against Milan, whether he’s up against Rafael Leao or Christian Pulisic. He certainly has the pace and strength, but there’s an inexperience there that the Milan duo still can exploit.
Piotr Zielinski will seemingly be given the playmaker role, with Hakan Calhanoglu destined for the bench, and it will be very interesting to see how he will handle it. Of course, anyone who has watched Serie A for a long time will know how good he is, but this is a big game.
Prediction
I’m afraid this has a draw written all over it. Milan have been in poor form lately, all things considered, and Inter are absolutely flying. One point would still be very good for the Nerazzurri so they can definitely play on that result, while anything but a win won’t do the Rossoneri much good.
Milan 1-1 Inter
My prediction too is a draw.
Milan can win if they make good use of counterattack opportunities. I find an Inter win to be unlikely.
It’s very disappointing there will be no Italians in the starting line up.
Diversity is our strength, right?