Serie A preview: Atalanta vs. AC Milan – Team news, opposition insight, stats and more

By Isak Möller -

AC Milan started the 2022-23 season in the best way possible with a 4-2 win against Udinese. And they will be looking to build on that this Sunday, scheduled to face Atalanta away from home. 

Milan ended a run of three consecutive 1-1 draws against Udinese last weekend, finding the back of the net four times. Although it wasn’t a perfect game, the Rossoneri proved that they are still the team we saw last season.

Sunday’s clash will be against an opponent that Milan have had quite a lot of success against recently, especially away from home. However, it remains a big game and another opportunity for Stefano Pioli’s men to really show their strength.


Game date: Sunday, August 21
Kick-off time: 20:45 (CEST)
Venue: Gewiss Stadium
Referee: Fabio Maresca (VAR: Valeri)


Team news

The injury situation is even better for Pioli this time out compared to last weekend, and with last season’s experiences in mind this is very positive. Olivier Giroud has recovered from his muscle fatigue and Sandro Tonali will also be called up.

However, Pioli did reveal in his pre-match press conference that Rade Krunic has sustained an issue with his left thigh muscle and therefore will miss the game, so he – along with Zlatan Ibrahimovic – is the only absentee.

Milan made two fatal mistakes in the game against Udinese but it wasn’t really the defenders’ fault. And even if it had been, Pioli was always going to field the same back four on Sunday evening, which is absolutely the right decision.

In midfield, it’s been widely reported that Tonali will be back from start after missing the opener. Krunic was expected to have to revert to the bench after what was a decent performance alongside Ismael Bennacer against Udinese, but will miss out due to the aforementioned history, which could present a chance for Tommaso Pobega or even Tiemoue Bakayoko to stake a claim.

According to MilanNews, Pioli is set to give a start to Alexis Saelemaekers rather than Junior Messias on the right side of the attack against the Bergamaschi, with Rafael Leao on the opposite flank.

There has been deliberation during the week about Charles De Ketelaere or Yacine Adli coming in at the No.10 role and/or a potential start for Divock Origi or Olivier Giroud, but Brahim Diaz (1 goal, 1 assist vs. Udinese) and Ante Rebic (2 goals) are expected to keep their spots after excellent displays against Udinese.

Probable Milan XI (4-2-3-1): Maignan; Calabria, Kalulu, Tomori, Theo; Bennacer, Tonali; Messias, Díaz, Leao; Rebic.


The opponents

Atalanta had a very disappointing 2021-22 campaign and when their form was at its worst, Gian Piero Gasperini’s position was even in danger. They ended up finishing in 8th place and thus missed out on European competitions, which was obviously a failure.

In the season prior (2020-21) they finished in 3rd place behind Milan and that says a lot about the significant downfall last season. Therefore, the manager has a lot to prove this term and his side certainly started the season well after numerous personnel changes in the summer, beating Sampdoria by two goals to nil.

It wasn’t a walk in the park for Atalanta, though, as Sampdoria had a goal controversially disallowed and hit the woodwork twice. It’s still very early to make any judgements about the Bergamo side’s form, in other words.

Gasperini is expected to field the same starting XI for tomorrow’s game and that means the likes of Ruslan Malinovskyi and Jeremie Boga will be on the bench initially. Duvan Zapata and Luis Muriel will form the duo up front.

Probable Atalanta XI (3-4-1-2): Musso; Tolio, Okoli, Djimsiti; Hateboer, De Roon, Koopmeiners, Maehle; Pasalic; Lookman, Zapata.


Head to head

As already mentioned, Milan have been quite successful against Atalanta in recent years. We all remember the final game of the 2020-21 season, when the Rossoneri secured their Champions League return with a 2-0 win at Gewiss Stadium.

The same fixture last season ended 3-2 in favour of the Rossoneri and the scoreline didn’t really reflect the game. Pioli’s men dominated the affair and conceded two late goals, not without some controversy from the refereeing team.

The last time these two sides faced each other was in May, when Theo Hernandez scored the famous solo goal that helped Milan secure the Scudetto. Rafael Leao was the one who opened the scoring and the Rossoneri ended up winning 2-0.

Match facts…

➤ Atalanta have lost each of their last three Serie A games against Milan, having been unbeaten in 10 of the previous 11 (W4 D6). The Bergamo side could collect four defeats in a row against the Rossoneri in the top-flight for the first time since 1993-1996.

➤ Atalanta will play their home seasonal debut in Serie A hosting Milan for the first time since 1955/56: on that occasion, the Nerazzurri won 4-3 and among the matches played in Bergamo, only on 24th December 1950 has seen more goals in this fixture (11, 7-4 win for Milan).

➤ With Stefano Pioli on the bench, Milan have always won their first two games of a Serie A championship: 2020-21 against Bologna and Crotone and 2021-22 against Sampdoria and Cagliari.

➤ Atalanta, who won in Genova against Sampdoria in the first matchday of this term, have won both of their first two games of a Serie A championship only four times in their history: in 1949-50, 1964-65, 2008-09 and 2020-21.

➤ Milan have won their last seven Serie A games: the last time they had a longer streak in the competition was in 2006, under the management of Carlo Ancelotti (nine).

➤ Milan conceded two headed goals on Matchday 1 of this Serie A season against Udinese, half of the total (four) they conceded in the entire 2021-22 Serie A campaign.

➤ Atalanta have conceded the fewest shots on target (one of 11 total shots) in the first matchday, while only Napoli (six) have faced fewer total shots than Milan (nine) in general.

➤ Duván Zapata has scored just one goal in his last 13 Serie A games: this is his joint-worst run since the beginning of his time with Atalanta in the top-flight (in that case a goal in the first 13 appearances of the 2018-19 season).

➤ Ante Rebic scored twice in the first match against Udinese: no player in the history of Milan has ever started the Serie A season by scoring at least two goals in each of the first two games played by the Rossoneri.

➤ Atalanta are the only side that Rafael Leao scored against in two different games in Serie A in 2021-22.


Ones to watch

It will be very interesting to see Tonali back from start, given that he was such an important player for Milan last season. Krunic did a decent job against Udinese but there’s no doubt that the Italian international is slightly better when it comes to finding the right pass, as well as using his body in the defensive phase.

Then, of course, it’s impossible to write this section without mentioning Rebic. He has already matched his record from last season (two goals) and he will get the chance from start again. Atalanta, being an attacking-minded side, could be the perfect opponent for the Croatian as he likes to make runs in behind the defence.

For the home side, the wing-backs (Hateboer and Maehle) will have to be monitored closely as they often are fundamental in the attacking phase. That also means they will leave space for Milan to counter in, but that won’t matter if the duo isn’t dealt with properly in the defensive phase.

Meanwhile, Ademola Lookman – who arrived from RB Leipzig in a deal worth €15m – certainly has the characteristics and the experience to thrive in Serie A despite being just 24, as his goal on his debut proved.


Prediction

It will be a tough game for both sides but the feeling is that Milan have an advantage, based on their start to the season and the recent H2H record. A clean sheet might be difficult to achieve, but without clear mistakes it’s doable.

Prediction: Atalanta 1-3 Milan

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