Serie A preview: Genoa vs. AC Milan – Team news, opposition insight, stats and more

By Isak Möller -

AC Milan will be back in action on Saturday evening as an away trip to Genoa is on the cards. The Rossoneri haven’t had much rest but will be looking to make it seven out of eight possible wins in the league. 

Indeed, Stefano Pioli’s men have had a very good start to the season in the league. They are coming from a 0-0 draw against Dortmund in the Champions League, though, and that game was also played just two days ago.

It’s far from ideal for Milan, but they will need to make the best out of the situation. Due to the tight schedule, Pioli didn’t even have time to speak to the media at the usual pre-match press conference.


Game date: Saturday, October 7
Kick-off time: 20:45 (CEST)
Venue: Luigi Ferraris
Referee: Marco Piccinini (VAR: Di Paolo)


Team news 

There are a few injuries that Pioli will have to work around, though there is nothing new on this front. Ismael Bennacer should be back towards the end of the year, while Rade Krunic and Ruben Loftus-Cheek should return after the break.

Compared to the game against Dortmund, there will be a few changes to XI but only one in defence given the recent success. Alessandro Florenzi will replace Davide Calabria, hoping to continue his positive trend.

The rest of the defence, as said, will remain the same and that is indeed understandable given that Milan have conceded just one goal in the last five games. With just one game left until the break, therefore, Pioli doesn’t want to mess with the magic.

In midfield, Yacine Adli will be back from start and that also means Tijjani Reijnders will play on the left. Yunus Musah is set for his second consecutive start and will be looking to shine once again on the right-hand side.

Further up the pitch, there is a battle between Samuel Chukwueze and Christian Pulisic for the right-wing spot. The Nigerian missed a big chance against Dortmund and will be looking to redeem himself, but the battle is still open.

Finally, Noah Okafor should be the starting centre-forward for the Rossoneri as Olivier Giroud clearly needs some rest. The Frenchman is eager to find the back of the net, but Pioli must give some space to the Swiss international, who has done well lately.

Probable Milan XI (4-3-3): Maignan; Florenzi, Thiaw, Tomori, Hernandez; Musah, Adli, Reijnders; Pulisic/Chukwueze), Okafor, Leao.


The opponents

Genoa played in the second tier last season and gained promotion after finishing in second place with 73 points. They decided to keep the manager Alberto Gilardino for the top tier as well, and who can blame them given the success last season.

So far, the Grifone have collected eight points after the first seven games. Not a brilliant record by any means, but they managed to beat both Lazio and Roma in the process. Furthermore, they got a 2-2 draw against Napoli.

Albert Gudmundsson was one of the key players last season and he has continued to do very well at the start of this one, along with Mateo Retegui. The latter was brought in this summer and he has scored three goals in the league.

However, as was confirmed by Gilardino earlier today, Retegui could miss out on the clash tomorrow as he’s struggling with knee pain. The final decision will be made tomorrow but it looks like he will be unavailable. This, of course, would be a boost for Milan.

There will be a very familiar face in the Genoa starting XI as well, with Junior Messias expected to start. The Brazilian is on loan at the club (but with an obligation to buy) and scored against Roma in his debut.

Probable Genoa XI (4-4-2): Martinez; Sabelli, Bani, Dragusin, Vasquez; Messias, Thorsby, Frendrup, Haps; Malinovskyi; Gudmundsson.


Head to head

Milan have been very successful against Genoa in recent time, with their last loss coming in March of 2020 (before the Covid lockdown). Since then, though, they have won three out of four games and have also won seven of the last nine.

At Luigi Ferraris, the Rossoneri have also done well with four wins in the last five games. The last encounter between the two sides at the stadium ended 3-0 (Scudetto season), with the goals coming from Zlatan Ibrahimovic and coincidentally Junior Messias, who bagged a brace.

Match facts…

➤ AC Milan have won seven of their last nine Serie A matches against Genoa (D1 L1) – including each of their last three – scoring at least two goals in seven of those

➤ In the last five matches at Ferraris between Genoa and Milan in Serie A, the Rossoneri have won four times (D1). Grifone’s last success at home against Diavolo in the competition came back in October 2016 under Juric (thanks to Ninkovic’s and Pavoletti’s goals, and Kucka’s own goal).

➤ Each of the last nine occasions in which Genoa have picked up at least eight points from their first seven Serie A matches in a season (last one in 2018/19) they have always gone on to avoid relegation; the last time they were relegated with as many points at this stage was back in 1994/95.

➤ AC Milan have picked up 18 points in Serie A this season, their third-best start after seven games in a top-flight campaign in the three points for a win era, only doing better in 2021/22 and 2003/04 (both 19 points).

➤ Since February, each AC Milan’s five Serie A defeats have come away from home, with the last of those away from Milan (therefore excluding the derby) coming against a Ligurian team: 0-2 against Spezia on May 13, 2023.

➤ Genoa are – level with Inter – one of the two teams to have scored the most goals in Serie A this season after a high turnover (both three) – the three such Grifone goals have come in their last two matches against Roma (two) and Udinese (one).

➤ Only Napoli have a higher pass success rate (87.7%) than AC Milan in the current Serie A season (87.4%); the Rossoneri also have the highest passing accuracy in their own half (94%).

 

➤ Albert Gudmundsson and Mateo Retegui have both scored three goals in Serie A this season: the last time Genoa had two strikers with at least three goals in the first seven Serie A matches was back in 1977/78 (Roberto Pruzzo and Giuseppe Oscar Damiani).

➤ AC Milan are the only team in the big five European leagues in 2023/24 to have two players with 3+ goals and 3+ assists (Olivier Giroud four goals and three assists, Rafael Leão three goals and three assists).

➤ Among the midfielders with at least 100 minutes played in Serie A this season, Yacine Adli is the one with the highest average of successful passes per 90 minutes (77 on average in 128 minutes played).


Ones to watch

It will be very interesting to see Yacine Adli back from start after a good cameo off the bench against Dortmund. The feeling is that he still needs to show properly what he’s capable of, even if his performances so far have been promising.

In addition to the Frenchman, it’s clear that Rafael Leao will have the motivation to do really well. The winger has received some criticism (inexplicably, really) for his display against Dortmund and now is the time to silence the critics.

As for Genoa, it goes without saying that Milan need to stay close to Gudmundsson. He’s incredibly skilful on the ball and looks silky smooth as he makes his way through the opponents. He needs to be stopped early, that’s for sure.

Ruslan Malinovskyi is another player who is capable of causing real damage, although he’s a lot less consistent compared to Gudmundsson. In any case, Milan cannot afford to give him any space on the edge of the box with his left foot.


Prediction

Milan have been very solid at the back and this should continue tomorrow evening. The struggles up front, meanwhile, could be a problem this time out as well but the feeling is that they will be more composed (like against Cagliari).

Genoa 0-2 Milan

Tags AC Milan Genoa Serie A

4 Comments

  1. I think Chuk should start this one and play the whole game, with Pulisic coming on in the 60th minute for Leao. If Chuk can get in form then they can rotate Leao out more often and he won’t need to conserve so much energy when on the field.

    1. Pioli must play on the result. That is evident. Chukwueze is obviously in state of growing and he could become like many other players before who needs the time.

      Our next 7 games are crucial for Serie A and Champions league. For Serie A we must stay close to Inter as much as possible. And in Champions League we don’t have that pressure for big result.

  2. I watch the matches, same as everyone else, and I see that Chukwueze LOOKS exciting, but I don’t understand people comparing him as equal to or superior to Pulisic.

    Numbers can sometimes mislead, but they don’t lie. Pulisic has played roughly twice as many minutes, so you should expect him to have twice as much production, but…

    Chuk has ZERO goal involvements. CP has 3 goals, an assist, and created at least one other goal (Okafor’s 1st).

    Dial down a little and you can see that it’s not just about production. Chuk has taken four shots, none of which were on target. CP has hit the frame on seven of eight shots.

    Chuk has only drawn two fouls. CP has drawn ELEVEN, including five yellow cards.

    Chuk looks great, but he has yet to deliver, really, anything. I’m sure he will (I saw a few of his matches at Villarreal), but at present, he’s very much second fiddle.

    1. Nice analysis.

      Chukweze, needs motivation. Either an assist or a goal will do well for his confidence.

      Who would have believed in Adli’ confidence after been benched all through last season and not until when Krunic was injured. I do really hope chukz comes in fast for easy rotation upfront.

      Another fear I have is our CB. if furlani can get a composed and speedy defender like Tomori, then we are good at the back as the front.

      ForzaMilan

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