It’s a big one for AC Milan at Stadio Olimpico, taking on Lazio and not Roma, as they could reduce the gap with Inter to just five points.
The Derby della Madonnina win has definitely improved the mood at Milanello, not to mention among the fans, after a few questionable appearances and results. This was fueled by Inter’s draw against Atalanta on Saturday, giving the Rossoneri another chance to close in.
During his press conference, Massimiliano Allegri made sure to highlight the importance of the game, while also clarifying that it’s not necessarily about winning for the Scudetto race, but rather to ensure that they always do the best they can.
Game date: Sunday, March 15
Kick-off time: 20:45 (CET)
Venue: Stadio Olimpico
Referee: Marco Guida (VAR: Daniele Chiffi)
Team news
Matteo Gabbia and Ruben Loftus-Cheek are still on the sidelines due to surgery, while Adrien Rabiot is suspended for this one. The Frenchman picked up a yellow card against Inter and since he was only one away from suspension, this is the game that he will miss.
Santiago Gimenez returned to training earlier this week and Allegri even confirmed during the presser that he’s in good condition, both physically and mentally. However, as his return to training was so recent, it has been decided not to call him up for tomorrow.
That’s it as far as the absences go, though, meaning Allegri has a good squad at his disposal all things considered. Fikayo Tomori, Koni De Winter and Strahinja Pavlovic will continue to guard Mike Maignan’s goal, which is only right considering the defensive success lately.
On the flanks, Alexis Saelemaekers will keep his spot after a decent display in the derby, while Pervis Estupinan will also get the chance again. Scoring the winner in a derby definitely should give you continued trust, so it’s nice to see Allegri opting for that path here.
The biggest talking point has been the midfield and who will replace Rabiot. Samuele Ricci appeared to be an early favourite for the spot, having enjoyed more of Allegri’s trust, but Ardon Jashari has overtaken the Italian in the race.
It would certainly be a huge opportunity for the Swiss international to show what he can do, having impressed here and there earlier in the season. Of course, he will team up with the midfield certainties Youssouf Fofana and Luka Modric.
Up front, Rafael Leao and Christian Pulisic will keep their spots as Allegri is hoping that both can find the back of the net as soon as possible. Especially the American, who is yet to score in 2026 but did show that his physical condition is no longer an issue with a hard-working derby display.
Off the bench, Allegri will have options such as Zachary Athekame and Davide Bartesaghi for the defence, while one of Niclas Füllkrug and Christopher Nkunku should definitely get the opportunity in the second half.
Predicted Milan XI (3-5-2): Maignan; Tomori, De Winter, Pavlovic; Saelemaekers, Fofana, Modric, Jashari, Estupinan; Pulisic, Leao.
Predicted bench: Terracciano, Pittarella, Athekame, Odogu, Bartesaghi, Ricci, Nkunku, Füllkrug.
Injuries & suspensions: Gabbia, Gimenez (recovered but not called up), Loftus-Cheek, Rabiot.
The opponents
By Lazio’s standards, it has been a very poor seaosn so far. They are 10th in the league standings after picking up just 13 points in 2026 (out of a possible 33) and European competitions are well out of reach already, which says a lot.
However, even if the European route is no longer viable through the league, the Biancocelesti are still in the Coppa Italia. The first semi-final against Atalanta at Stadio Olimpico ended 2-2, so even though it will be difficult in Bergamo, a Europa League spot remains on the table.
The bigger question, though, is why Lazio have done so poorly this season. Many expected more when Sarri’s return was announced in the summer, but any ambition was effectively blocked by the total transfer ban put on the club.
Lazio were subsequently only able to redeem the players they had on loan with options/obligations to buy, such as Nicolo Rovella, Nuno Tavares and Luca Pellegrini. While that was important, not being able to make any real reinforcements really makes it difficult to compete.
Fortunately for the president Claudio Lotito, the ban was lifted ahead of the January transfer window and with no restrictions added either, which was a bit surprising as a lot of sources suggested it would be a zero-sum game (to buy a player for x amount, you need to sell for x amount as well).
Still, star striker Taty Castellanos and the important midfielder Matteo Guendouzi were both sold, for €29m and €28m respectively. Kenneth Taylor (midfielder, Ajax) and Petar Ratkovc (striker, Salzburg) were brought in as the main replacements, while Daniel Maldini was also secured on loan.
The goalkeeper Edoardo Motta was also brought in from Reggiana, which turned out to be very important as Ivan Provedel is currently out injured. The same can be said for Alessio Romagnoli (even if they will try until the end to recover him) and Danilo Cataldi, which is quite a blow for Sarri as all three are usually starters.
Interestingly, it looks like the former Milan man and aforementioned Maldini will start as a false No.9, teaming up with Gustav Isaksen and Mattia Zaccagni in attack. Patric in midfield will also be one to keep an eye on, seeing as he’s a defender.
Predicted Lazio XI (3-5-2): Motta; Marusic, Gila, Provstgaard, Tavares; Dele-Bashiru, Patric, Taylor; Isaksen, Maldini, Zaccagni.
Predicted bench: Furlanetto, Giacomone, Hysaj, Lazzari, Pellegrini, Belahyane, Basic, Przyborek, Pedro, Noslin, Cancellieri, Dia, Ratkov.
Injuries & suspensions: Cataldi, Gigot, Provedel, Romagnoli, Rovella.
Head to head
Tomorrow’s clash will be the 195th encounter between Milan and Lazio, with the Rossoneri hoping to build on their advantage. Indeed, they have 87 wins while the Biancocelesti have only mustered up 42, with the remaining 65 games ending in draws.
In recent history, however, this fixture has been very even in every sense of the word. In the last five games, Milan have won two, drawn one, and lost one. If you limit the data to Stadio Olimpico clashes, there has never been the same outcome in consecutive games since the 2019-20 season.
The most recent encounter was in the Coppa Italia back in December, and in that one a late goal from Mattia Zaccagni was enough for Lazio. In the reverse fixture in the league, on the other hand, it was Milan that prevailed by the odd goal thanks to Rafael Leao’s tap-in.
Key facts and stats
➤ AC Milan are unbeaten in seven of their last nine Serie A matches against Lazio (W6 D1), with their two defeats in this period coming on 24 January 2023 (0-4) and 2 March 2025 (1-2).
➤ Lazio have not recorded the same result in any of their last 12 home Serie A matches against AC Milan (W4 D4 L4 for both teams in that period). Their most recent meeting at the Stadio Olimpico was a 2-2 draw on 31 August 2024.
➤ AC Milan have scored in 25 of their last 27 matches against SS Lazio in Serie A, netting a total of 43 goals in the process, an average of 1.6 per game; the only two occasions they failed to score were on 26 April 2021 (0-3) and 24 January 2023 (0-4).
➤ Lazio won their last Serie A match against an opponent with more points in the table at the start of the day (2-1 v Sassuolo), following a run of seven consecutive such games without success (D2 L5). They last recorded consecutive victories in these kinds of matches in December 2024 (three on that occasion).
➤ After their successes against Cremonese and Inter, both without conceding a goal, AC Milan could register three consecutive Serie A wins without shipping a goal for the first time since September (against Lecce, Bologna and Udinese on that occasion).
➤ Despite their success last time out, Lazio have collected a maximum of 37 points in their first 28 Serie A seasonal matches for the fourth time in the three-points-for-a-win era, after 2004/05 (34), 2007/08 (34) and 2009/10 (26).
➤ AC Milan have picked up 60 points in 28 Serie A matches this season. Only twice in the last 20 top- flight campaigns have they recorded at least 63 points after their first 29 games: in 2011-12 (63) and 2021-22 (63).
➤ AC Milan (52.9%) and SS Lazio (52.2%) are two of the three teams with the highest duel success rate in this Serie A season, along with Inter (52.3%).
➤ Daniel Maldini has now scored for five different Serie A teams, with his goal against Sassuolo for Lazio meaning he has netted for AC Milan (2021/22), Cosenza, Spezia, Empoli and now the Biancocelesti. The 2001-born player is one of only two footballers born in or after 2001 to score for five or more different clubs in the competition, alongside Roberto Piccoli (six).
➤ Lazio are one of only two sides against which Rafael Leão has scored three or more goals and provided three or more assists in Serie A (3+4), alongside Hellas Verona. The Milan forward has been involved in five goals across his last five Serie A appearances against Lazio (two goals and three assists).
Ones to watch
It looks like Allegri will continue with Estupinan on the left-hand side, which definitely is the right call after the winner against Inter. We have seen glimpses of what he can do on a good day, especially in attack with his crossing, but confidence has clearly been an issue. Hopefully that’s better now.
In midfield, replacing the suspended Rabiot, Jashari is expected to get the chance. He has definitely impressed when given the chance but the lack of playing time has made things difficult. As such, he needs to seize the opportunity tomorrow to convince Allegri fully.
For Lazio, it would be silly not to mention Gila here. He will be Lazio’s best defender on the pitch tomorrow, as Romagnoli likely will miss out, and Milan’s management will keep a close eye on him. After all, it seems a summer offer is imminent, even if the price tag could be high.
Finally, rather than going with Zaccagni here as most would do, Lazio’s danger man in attack these days is definitely Isaksen. He’s in better form than the captain and being up against Estupinan, he might have a lot of success with his 1v1 dribbling and fast movement.
Prediction
Milan are beaming after the derby win, and with Inter only getting a draw against Atalanta, most would probably say that this is a classic Rossoneri bottlejob. I, on the other hand, believe that we will come away with all three points tomorrow.
Sure, Rabiot’s absence will weigh heavily on the game, but now is the time for Allegri and his men to show that they can adapt and play differently to still get the result.
Lazio 0-2 Milan
Inter left the door open … we must win tomorrow to even have a chance of winning the Scudetto
Hope puli scores we need him to get in form for the last stretch
Ahh… yes, we take on Lazio next. We get to watch the multi-talented actor & swimmer (diver) Zaccagni throw himself about hoping to get a foul call against his marker.
Oh joy.